Touching down in Bratislava, Slovakia, Oktagon 89 is headlined by a highly anticipated clash with double-champ status on the line. This weekend, flyweight champion Zhalgas Zhumagulov moves up to bantamweight, where he’ll challenge Igor Severino for the Brazilian’s newly earned title.
With plenty of hype surrounding the matchup, the stakes are clear. Zhumagulov has a chance to add another belt to his résumé and continue one of the strongest late-career runs in the sport, while Severino gets an opportunity to defend his throne and further distance himself from the controversy that once defined his name.
Ahead of fight night, here’s an in-depth breakdown of each fighter’s path to victory:
Zhalgas Zhumagulov, 37, 19-9-0, Kazakhstan
Why Zhalgas Zhumagulov will win:
Zhalgas Zhumagulov had perhaps one of the most frustrating runs on the UFC roster. The Kazakh fighter only picked up one victory across a seven-fight stay, suffering three consecutive split decision losses before ultimately being released.
Since then, “Zhako” has looked virtually unbeatable, rattling off five straight victories across Naiza FC and Oktagon. His resurgence reached a new level in June 2025, when he captured the Oktagon flyweight title with a unanimous decision win over Beno Adamia. Six months later, he made his first defense in emphatic fashion, stopping fellow UFC veteran David Dvořák by third-round TKO.
Less than a year removed from claiming gold, Zhumagulov is now chasing even more history. The former UFC flyweight will move up to bantamweight with double-champ status on the line, drawing a much younger threat in his latest test.
Severino has never been in the cage beyond the third round, and in this matchup, Zhumagulov will have to slow down his opponent’s early explosion. It’s going to be a tricky balance for the Kazakh veteran. Normally, I would expect him to implement his grappling early, but Severino has locked up some impressive defensive chokes in the past.
Regardless, Zhumagulov should have multiple avenues to avoid danger. I’m expecting him to keep his feet moving around the outside of the cage and force Severino to use his energy in the opening round. He has survived against more talented finishers in the past, though it’s important that he doesn’t get discouraged early. The key will be getting to deep waters. If the first level change isn’t successful, Zhumagulov will have to remain confident.
Past the third round, this fight should favor Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Obviously, it wouldn’t be ideal to go down two rounds to none, but even if that becomes the reality, I would still side with Zhumagulov’s cardio. Especially in a five-round fight, the much more experienced “Zhako” should be able to hold on early before toughing out a late finish or securing a tight decision victory.
Igor Severino, 23, 10-1-0, Brazil
Why Igor Severino will win:
Igor Severino’s UFC career came to a bizarre end in March 2024, when he bit André Lima in the second round of his promotional debut. It’s been a less-than-ideal road for Severino since that moment, as the Brazilian has dealt with multiple opponent cancellations and long stretches of inactivity.
As of late, though, there’s been a shift for the ex-UFC bantamweight. Severino has begun leaning into the incident, now sporting the nickname “The Hannibal.” Perhaps as a result of newfound confidence and swagger, Severino became the Oktagon bantamweight titleholder in March, scoring a significant win by finishing Khurshed Kakhorov in the second round. Kakhorov, a former PFL Europe tournament champion, had only lost to Brett Johns and Islam Dulatov prior to that defeat.
Things won’t be getting much easier either. Taking on Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his first title defense, Severino is continuing his path toward a high-status résumé. Zhumagulov will be a much different assignment for the bantamweight, as there isn’t much of an opening to chase a finish. Zhalgas has only been knocked out twice on the feet, and for a fighter like Severino, that could mean potential trouble.
Igor Severino will have to make a decision before the cage door closes, which makes this a difficult preparation for the young fighter. Severino’s game is built around being a killer, and I can’t see him not jumping out of the gates to go for the finish. However, if Severino decides to manage his gas tank and match Zhumagulov’s pace early, it could serve as a wiser approach for the Brazilian.
This fight can’t be finish-or-bust for Severino. Zhumagulov is simply not as vulnerable as his recent opponents. Severino is going to have to find a mix of early explosions while still preserving enough energy for the later rounds. It’s not an easy task at all, but Igor has the tools to put it together.
A sneaky path to victory for Severino is catching Zhumagulov’s neck on one of his entries. He has only pulled it off once, but “The Hannibal” has a gripping guillotine choke from bottom position. He’ll certainly have a size advantage against Zhumagulov, and perhaps that length will create some complications on the ground for the flyweight champion.
Final Prediction:
This is a really high-level matchup, and Oktagon has done a terrific job of salvaging past UFC roster talent. It’s tough to pick against either fighter, though I’m leaning toward Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He has been extremely consistent over his last five fights and owns the much stronger strength of schedule.
Keep an eye on Igor Severino to make a serious push for an early finish, but I’m expecting Zhumagulov to draw the fight out and turn the later rounds into a massive headache for the Brazilian.
