UFC Belgrade has its fair share of UFC debuts this weekend. One of the best fights on the entire card just so happens to be between two debuts. Noah Gugnon from France will meet Montenegro’s Milos Janicic live in Serbia.
Noah Gugnon
Gugnon was on a two-fight skid before putting together his current five-fight winning streak. Those weren’t bad losses at the time, and I actually think he won the last one. Regardless, the expectation is improvement since then, and he’s improved tremendously. His wins may not be elite, but they aren’t bad either, and that matters in today’s lightweight division.
Gugnon is a legit action fighter that you want to tune in for every time he competes. He wants to be the one pressing forward and throwing first. He’s a controlled brawler with multiple layers to his game, but it’s his power that stands out more than anything. He’s looking to take your head off and can do it both on the feet and with ground-and-pound.
He has a sharp jab, solid calf kicks, and uses good footwork that allows him to counter effectively. That said, he’s a true pocket striker. He attacks all three levels, but his body-to-head combinations are especially nasty. Gugnon is willing to get hit, but that usually brings out his best. He thrives in chaos, and whenever he gets clipped, he’s eager to fire right back.
Gugnon can wrestle, although I’m not convinced it’ll translate as well against UFC-level competition. He can secure takedowns in open space and along the cage. I think a lot of his wrestling success comes from the threat of his striking, as he’ll surprise opponents with an explosive shot. His jiu-jitsu is solid, but his ground-and-pound is downright vicious. He’ll smash opponents with heavy punches and elbows until the referee steps in.
Defensively, he’s been taken down more than I’d like to see, although he usually does a good job of getting right back to his feet. Against stronger UFC wrestlers, that won’t come as easily. Mark Ewen laid out the blueprint for beating Gugnon by keeping him at the end of his punches, staying disciplined with feints, and refusing to brawl. If you force Gugnon to fight from behind, he’s not nearly as effective. Still, that fight was three years ago, and he’s clearly learned from it. At just 25 years old, I have high hopes for him. I ranked him as my No. 33 overall prospect, which says a lot considering his age and how deep the lightweight division is.
Milos Janicic
Janicic looked destined for the UFC the moment he defeated Marko Bojkovic, who was viewed by many as one of the top prospects at the time. Since then, he’s stayed incredibly active, competing in MMA, custom bouts, kickboxing, and dirty boxing. He hasn’t lost an MMA fight in nearly seven years.
I wasn’t a fan of Janicic early on, but the more tape I watched, the more his style grew on me. He’s purely a striker—a broken boxer. His style is unconventional and lacks textbook mechanics, but he makes it work. He typically throws from the hip, which comes with both pros and cons. Hands low naturally lead to defensive issues, and to make that style work consistently, you need elite counter-striking ability and quick reactions. Janicic is a good counter-striker, but he still gets hit more than he should.
Offensively, though, he makes up for it. His hands are difficult to read because opponents never know when or from what angle he’s going to throw. Keeping his hands low also gives him better vision, allowing his striking to flow naturally. He has an excellent jab that he constantly fights behind, and it’s one of his best weapons. He rarely gives opponents a chance to breathe, constantly changing targets and mixing his weapons together. Between the jab, brutal liver kick, elbows, and damaging knees, he’s always making opponents think.
Janicic is always throwing something, but he spends too much time in the pocket because he genuinely loves to brawl. It hasn’t hurt his record yet, but his takedown defense is a real concern. Instead of consistently fighting for underhooks or controlling wrists, he’ll often chase low-percentage front chokes or focus on landing damage. He usually avoids getting finished, but that’s going to be a bigger problem in the UFC.
Janicic is going to bring excitement every time he fights in the UFC. Hopefully he’s matched with fellow strikers because he’ll have a legitimate chance to earn a Fight of the Night bonus almost every time out. I currently rank him as the No. 37 lightweight on the UFC roster out of 87 fighters.
Fight Prediction
The UFC did a great job signing both of these guys and matching them up right away. They’re both scrappers who are looking to inflict damage from the opening bell.
I’m siding with Gugnon because I think he’s the more complete striker and has more paths to victory. He can mix in takedowns whenever he wants. He may not submit Janicic, but he can absolutely use them to rack up damage. On the feet, I think Gugnon has the better process. He uses feints more effectively, should be the faster fighter, is better defensively, and carries more power.
My only concern is Gugnon slowing down late and allowing Janicic to take over if the fight extends. Even with that possibility, I like Gugnon to find the finish. My prediction is Gugnon by second-round TKO, and I think a body shot is what ultimately puts Janicic away.
