Hunter Smith (8-1) vs Adam Livingston (7-1)
Smith brings real power and decent striking, but his defense is the concern. He wears damage easily, though he’s proven durable. Watch for his counter check left hook. Livingston is back for a second shot after a first-round guillotine loss to Tommy Gantt. He’s got reach and throws heavy flurries, but for a fighter built to fight long, he skips the jab in favor of looping hooks, leaving himself vulnerable. Livingston should wrestle to expose the weak ground game of Smith if he wants to finally punch his ticket to the UFC.
Charlie Cleveland (6-1) vs Gabriel Lourenco (7-1)
Cleveland is explosive, athletic, and his fight IQ has visibly sharpened, evident in back-to-back first-round knockouts. His ground and pound ends fights fast if this stays in round one. Lourenco is a kickboxer with flashy angles that look wilder than they are technically sound. He avoids the ground, is built well for the weight class, but hasn’t shown real power against tougher competition. I find he does like to back up against the cage a bit too often, which won’t lend himself any room to defend against a guy like Charlie Cleveland.
Liam McCracken (8-1) vs Silvestre Sanchez (9-1)
McCracken is a busy, technical striker with strong body lock trips. He scrambles well, gets back to his feet quickly, and keeps throwing hard combinations deep into fights, with the body as a key setup tool. Sanchez is unpredictable, with strong power but telegraphed, slower punches. He likes to work to the cage for a double leg, then hunt the neck. Five of his wins have come by rear naked choke, and he doesn’t hide the setup. Sanchez is now training at the UFC PI in Mexico, which should tell you he’s committed to the vision. McCracken’s resume raises a small question mark – it’s odd a fighter this good on the eye test from the UK hasn’t fought in Cage Warriors.
Brandon Holmes (6-1) vs Modestino Rodrigues (7-1)
Holmes mixes solid striking with reliable takedown defense. He’s escaped threatening submission spots before, and his lone TKO loss last season to Cam Rowston shouldn’t be held against his durability. Rodrigues is all pressure, throwing from every angle in a kill-or-be-killed style. His takedown defense is weak and he doesn’t scramble back up, though he’ll throw the occasional triangle and keep striking off his back.
Adam Darby (7-1) vs Patrick Rivera (13-4)
Darby uses his length well, with sharp footwork and a stance switch that punishes anyone who moves to the weak side. His takedown defense is good, but he’s just as comfortable letting the fight hit the mat, where he hunts submissions without overextending. His ground and pound is vicious, one stoppage-win came off his back with a body triangle locked in. Rivera is a solid kickboxer under the right conditions, but he needs to be the aggressor, and that’s unlikely here. Darby has been caught by an overhand right before, and that’s the shot Rivera will be looking for. On the other side, Rivera hasn’t faced this level of striking pressure and has been submitted three times. Darby’s length and front choke threat could make it a fourth.
My Bets:
Livingston, Darby, Cleveland = +162 ( 1u ) (Bet365)
Cleveland ITD, McCracken Round 3 or Decision, Holmes ITD = +699 ( .5u ) (FanDuel)
Full Slate: Livingston/Smith Over 1.5 rounds, Cleveland to Win in Rd 1, McCracken/Sanchez Fight Starts Round 2, Holmes/Rodrigues Fight Does NOT Start Round 2, Darby/Rivera FDGTD = +821 ( .5u ) (FanDuel)
“If It Goes Wrong, Here’s Why” Parlay: Smith, Cleveland, Sanchez, Rodrigues, Darby = +1495 (.25u) (FanDuel)
LET’S FEAST!
