Damian Piwowarczyk (11-4) vs Emilio Quissua (8-0)
Piwowarczyk uses his striking to force opponents into a shot, then looks to snatch the neck and jump guillotine. His striking is decent, plenty of one twos and hooks in the pocket, and he’s not afraid to press pace. He does have a 5 second knockout loss on his record, but that reads more like a fluke than a real chin concern.
Quissua looked decent on tape. He does bring some knockout power, so if he can stay ahead of the pressure and avoid getting clipped by a straight, he could find a finish in the second or third round.
Piero Guaylupo (12-0) vs Callum Connor (8-0)
Piero is the Inka Lightweight champion, is a fast footwork striker with great cardio and a real finishing rate, though the level of competition he’s faced has been among the weakest of the season, raising real questions about how he stacks up here.
Connor shares the same disinterest in taking this to the mat, and won’t spend time in the clinch unless it’s forced. His one submission win came against clearly mismatched, losing record competition and shouldn’t be weighed heavily. This could be chaos or it could be a snooze. If forced to pick a side, Guaylupo looks like the more committed pressure fighter, while Connor struggles in that role.
Marcos Degli vs Paris Moran
Moran is a big, physical flyweight wrestler with a strong regional résumé, but durability is the concern. His cardio has failed him late in fights before, his chin has been tested, and he doesn’t throw enough volume on the feet to consistently set up his takedowns.
Degli is a technical, powerful striker with a strong finishing rate at flyweight. He’s not the fastest, but his counter striking and shot placement make up for it. His wrestling defense is a bit of an unknown against a real wrestler, though he’s shown he can time knees against takedown attempts in the past.
Alvi Dasuyev (9-0) vs Jaden Ortega (6-0)
Dasuyev moves well and counters effectively off center, but leaves himself a bit too open defensively against volume striking. He can be explosive with body lock takedowns, and using that tool here would be the smart play.
Ortega brings excellent bounce and physicality on the feet, though he tends to be overly patient, relying on crisp countering rather than initiating. Once he catches you, he pounces and finishes with relentless output, and his slapping question mark kick is one of the better techniques seen on regional tape recently. His takedown defense is untested, no attempts showed up on available film.
This is a genuinely intriguing matchup. If Ortega can bring forward pressure and volume, a first round finish is realistic. If he doesn’t, and Dasuyev stays patient without committing to a takedown, this could turn into a decision.
Norbert Novenyi Jr (10-1) vs Theo Haig (7-1)
Novenyi Jr is an exciting, complete fighter with a point fighting style reminiscent of MVP or Wonderboy. He can get overzealous at times, throwing jump knees, but even when taken down he pops back up quickly.
Haig is looking for a second shot at Contender Series validation after a quick knockout loss to Cezary Oleksiejczuk last season, and will likely spam takedowns hunting for a finishing submission. This looks like a lopsided striking mismatch made worse by the fact that Haig is up against a guy who gets off the mat faster than he hits it.
My Bets:
Norbert and Degli both to win in Rd 1 or 2 + Quissua / Piwowarczyk FDGTD = +202 (1u)
Quissua by TKO/KO, Degli ITD, Norbert by TKO/KO = +689 ( .5u )
Quissua/Piwowarczyk FDGTD, Degli ITD, Ortega/Dasuyev Ov 1.5 rds, Norbert TKO/KO rd 1 = +769 ( .5u )
All odds based on FanDuel
Yes, I am over exposed but these Degli and Norbert should be glue for anyone this week!
