Jonathan Kunneman (10-0) vs Joseph Kropschot (8-3)
Kunneman comes in as a -450 favorite looking to bull rush with wild looping punches, scoop and slam, then either continue ground and pound from position or hunt an immediate arm-triangle. The undefeated record looks great on paper, but it’s been built largely against overmatched competition out of Alaska.
Kropschot, the current LFA Middleweight Champion, has average striking fundamentals and low volume, but a real gameplan: jab, occasional one-two, close the distance into the clinch, then work body locks and trips. Even if he ends up on his back, he’s comfortable there and always hunting the submission. He’s also fought the better competition of the two, including a third-round submission loss to Cody Brundage early in his career.
Ananias Mulumba (10-3) vs Tom Pagliarulo (10-2)
Mulumba returns to the Contender Series stage after his unforgettable war with Marwan Rahiki, where he landed and early flatlining overhand right followed by a second-round knockout loss (make it make sense, right?). Since then, he’s rebounded with a first-round KO win in the UAE.
Pagliarulo, out of the New England Cartel camp, is a fast, multi-angle striker, but his path through this fight depends on surviving Mulumba’s early speed and power without getting taken down. Mulumba’s cardio has failed him before, and it’s unclear whether Pagliarulo has the gas to test that deep into the fight. Mix in what’s at stake here: a second shot at a contract for Mulumba, a first UFC look for Pags, and this has finish potential written all over it.
Mridul Saikia (9-1) vs Bilal Hasan (8-0)
Bilal Hasan is the play here, full stop. At -2500 and growing, we can only play something creative in the first round, but the expectation is a finish inside the first two and a half minutes.
Fabrizio Escarrega (9-1) vs Abe Alsaghir (8-0)
Escarrega doesn’t throw one-twos, he throws four-plus punch combinations with real intent to finish, and he keeps that pressure alive on the ground if he gets you down.
Alsaghir is undefeated but untested, with his last two wins coming against a 41-year-old fighting in a knee brace and a 45-year-old UFC vet in Drew Fickett. Alsaghir does have tools with looping overhands, a serviceable jab feint, raw power in the takedown, and he doesn’t give up position easily, as shown by the fast second-round rear naked choke he got on Fickett after forcing the back. Still, the jump in competition here is real.
Anthony Wint (6-0) vs Matt Adams (6-2)
Wint is a physical outlier as an explosive, powerful athlete who came into MMA out of a short NFL stint during Covid, with fast combos, blast doubles, and solid takedown defense.
Adams, an LFA veteran and former champion, is a different kind of fighter entirely: durable but without the physical gifts, and coming off a fight where he tapped to a rear naked choke from a kneeling position and was split open on the ground before that.
What my betting cards look like (odds based on FanDuel):
Hasan Round 1 KO + Wint/Adams ends by KO/TKO = -109
Mulumba/Pagliarulo Does NOT Start Round 3 + Escarrega/Alsaghir FDGTD + Wint/Adams Over 0.5 rounds = +133
Kropschot by submission Rd 2 +1500
Kropschot by submission Rd 3 +3500 (just in case)
Escarrega by KO/TKO + Hasan/Saikia Under 0.5 rounds = +514
Let’s eat!
