Contender Series 2026 Week 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- I can at least understand why Joseph Kropschot is getting this opportunity. It’s not because he brings a ton of excitement to the middleweight division, but he is the reigning LFA middleweight champion. He also has a real chance to fraud-check two undefeated prospects in back-to-back fights. He already did it to David Allakhverdiev, and now he’ll look to do the same against Kunneman.

That scenario is very much in play because, like Allakhverdiev, Kunneman is still largely untested. He’s never gone the distance and has barely fought beyond the three-minute mark. Kunneman has been running through opponents, but the level of competition hasn’t been impressive. Outside of that, though, he’s been dominant and trains with high-level guys.

Kunneman is a wrestler with heavy overhands, a style we’ve seen countless times, and one Kropschot should be well prepared for. Kropschot can be vulnerable on the feet, but his height and reach advantage should help him stay outside those power shots. Kunneman will likely look to wrestle, but Kropschot is a strong wrestler in his own right and a BJJ black belt.

For the first time, Kunneman will be facing someone who actually fights back and has more experience. Kunneman may not be prepared for that. I got Kropschot by submission in round two.

Cedris Dumas– At the time of writing, Jon Kunneman sits as a Tapology favorite, but I have Joseph Kropschot taking this fight home. Don’t get me wrong, Kunneman’s 10-0 record looks far sexier on paper. The problem is that it’s pure can-crushing. He’s beaten aging fighters with losing records, sidestepped real tests, and essentially glided his way onto the Contender Series. Yes, he’s a regional champion, but that belt came against a 40-year-old Matt Friesen. There’s simply no quality win on his résumé.

Kropschot, by contrast, has actually been tested. He’s faced better opposition, absorbed adversity, and possesses at least one meaningful victory in his LFA title-winning submission of David Allakhverdiev. I expect a similar script here: Kunneman’s early pressure eventually slows, Kropschot finds his opening later in the fight, and sinks a submission to spoil the undefeated prospect’s Contender Series debut.

Pick: Kropschot by Round 2 Submission.

Nicholas Holt– It’s hard for me to evaluate Jon Kunneman – he’s been virtually perfect throughout his professional career with nine first-round finishes… but he’s faced some horrific, and I mean HORRIFIC, competition. There are legitimately only two fighters he’s faced who currently hold winning records, with the majority of his opponents never fighting again after losing to Kunneman. Perhaps the most surprising matchup of all came against Shannon Simpson, who hadn’t stepped into a cage since 2013. Simpson was brought back to face Kunneman in 2024 for the fourth fight of Kunneman’s professional career.

I’m not one to rip into fighters, and before I get too ahead of myself, I will say Kunneman does have legitimate skills. He possesses a quality wrestling base and clearly has a knack for finishing fights. It’s just that the level of competition, beginning with that fight against Simpson, never really improved from there. I would’ve much preferred to see him test himself against stronger opposition, and that could spell trouble for Kunneman here.

For Kropschot, things couldn’t be more different. The California native is sporting freshly minted gold after the biggest win of his career, upsetting former top prospect David Allakhverdiev with a second-round submission. His level of competition has steadily improved throughout his career, even running into current UFC middleweight Cody Brundage during a brief stint with LFA in 2021 before eventually returning to the promotion in 2025.

Looking at the tale of the tape, I feel like I might sound crazy given that Kunneman actually has the better combined opponent record – but that statistic simply isn’t fair to Kropschot. His fourth professional fight came against Marcus Gaines, who held a 16-29-1 record at the time, dramatically dragging down those numbers. To me, I’d rather see Kropschot crush a few cans early in his career before progressing into the LFA than watch Kunneman seek out retired opponents to protect his undefeated record.

I don’t think a special performance will be necessary to beat Kunneman. This is a massive step up in competition for him, and I struggle to believe he’s ready for it. Kunneman will almost certainly come out with his usual approach of relentless aggression and wild power shots, but I think Joseph Kropschot will weather the early storm. Who knows what Kunneman’s gas tank looks like? He hasn’t been to the second round since his professional debut. Kropschot is the known commodity in this matchup, and his jiu-jitsu has been on quite the roll.

Pick: Kropschot by Round 2 Submission.

Patrick Danna- Kropschot really impressed me in his last fight, working through early adversity to take out David Allakhverdiev and win the LFA middleweight championship. I was high on Allakhverdiev going in, but Kropschot’s grappling and resilience proved problematic. I wish he used his striking for more than just setting up takedowns, but his submission game is solid. Kropschot has also fought the likes of Cody Brundage and Orion Cosce earlier in his career. While he lost those fights, the experience against that level of competition is pivotal.

Kunneman, on the other hand, has never tasted defeat with a flawless 10-0 record; however, his level of competition is completely unimpressive. He is mostly fighting older fighters or cans who aren’t taking the sport seriously, resulting in dominant, destructive wins. Despite looking good in most of these, it’s clear he isn’t being tested and is fighting guys who will roll over at the first sign of adversity. Kunneman has a great story as a diagnosed diabetic and has overcome lots of adversity to get here; the problem is that he’s probably faced more outside of the cage than inside.

Kunneman has been a great hammer against some accepting nails throughout his career, but if Kropschot survives the early onslaught, will Kunneman have what it takes to survive Kropschot’s grappling offense and rebound? I lean that he won’t be able to, and favor Kropschot’s experience against a significantly better level of competition. Kunneman just feels like a typical “good hammer, bad nail” type of fighter, and I feel like if he doesn’t get the quick win, he gets drowned as the fight goes.

Pick: Kropschot by Round 2 Submission

Chase Gurotsky- Coming off quite the upset win last time out, Kropschot has all the momentum. The 8-3, 31-year-old makes his DWCS debut after three straight 2nd round RNCs. He, in total, is riding a 4-fight finish and win streak, with a combined opponent record of 26-12. His last loss was in 2021; from 2019 to his last fight in 2021, he went on a 3-fight losing streak. He has clearly made massive improvements since being a 3-3 fighter.

Kropschot will face the unbeaten Jon Kunneman with a 10-0 record. Kunneman, on paper, is the better choice here, as all ten of his wins are by finish. Now Kropschot’s opponents aren’t better, but the recent ones have been. Kunneman has not faced anyone who has a future in the sport beyond the regional scene.

Pick: Kropschot 2nd round Rear Naked Choke 

Xavi Ryder- APFC middleweight champion Jon Kunneman has run through his opponents to bring him to 10-0. He is a very aggressive fighter who wants to get in your face as soon as possible. On the feet, he swings wild punches to close the distance and get in on takedowns. On the ground, he is in his world, looking for a ground-and-pound finish or, more likely, a submission. Up to this point, his opponents have crumbled under this pressure.

Standing across from Kunneman on Tuesday will be the bigger, longer man in LFA middleweight champion Joseph Kropschot. Kropschot has been finished before, but not since 2021, and two of his three finish losses came in round three. Earlier this year, Kropschot showed that he can weather some damage against a good fighter in David Allakhverdiev. I don’t expect Kropschot to roll over early for Kunneman, and with the unknown of Kunneman’s cardio against someone who can make him work, I have to go with Kropschot. I think he weathers the early storm and finds a mid to late submission.

Pick: Kropschot via Round 2 Submission

Drew Beaupre – I made the mistake of picking David Allakhverdiev early in the draft for this year’s Prospect Grand Prix, and Kropschot ended up upsetting the formerly-undefeated fighter in Allakhverdiev’s first LFA title defense in February. Like Allakhverdiev, Kunneman was also included in my list of middleweights the UFC should sign in 2026, but that pick came with a significant caveat regarding the level of competition that he’s beaten so far.

I’d feel more confident about Kunneman’s chances here if I thought that he might spend some time testing Kropschot on the feet, but all of his previous performances indicate he’ll want to try and overpower his opponent and bring things to the ground as quickly as possible. There’s also significant question marks around how “AK-47” will look if this fight goes beyond the first few minutes, and I expect that he’ll suffer a similar fate to Allakhverdiev if he insists on going to the mat with Kropschot and isn’t able to find an early finish.

(Pick: Kropschot via Round 2 Submission)

Cangrejo Ruiz- Interesting fight between two guys at different points of their careers. Kunneman is the hyped up guy with a shiny record and a lot of finishes, but in reality he is quite unproven. Meanwhile, Kropschot has a much lower ceiling but has faced and beaten much better opposition. In this case, I trust my eyes and the ears; I expect Kunneman to look for an early finish and Kropschot to survive just for Kropschot to find an RNC finish later in the fight after Kunneman gasses.

Pick: Kropschot by R2 Submission