Christian Natividad (9-0) vs Colton Loud (7-1)
Natividad is a good technical boxer with fast ins and outs. He can grapple offensively when he wants to, though usually he waits until the end of a round unless he sees an easy ground and pound opportunity early. He’s not overly dangerous, but his speed on the feet is enough to make a referee stop the fight on optics alone. Loud is a wiry grappler with some knockout ability and unorthodox striking. He’s very active on the ground and skilled at scrambling, whether that means getting back to his feet or reversing position entirely. Natividad has gone the distance in 6 of his 9 pro fights, while Loud has never left the second round in his career.
Apollo Gomes (12-2) vs Won Il Kwon (14-6)
Gomes is well rounded but average across the board. He’ll flash combinations and body work that make him look like a great fighter, then take his foot off the gas just as quickly. Against lower level competition he stands out, against equal competition he can grind out a decision, and against anyone slightly above that he tends to fail. Kwon is looking to avenge his last Contender Series appearance, a spinning back elbow knockout loss to Luis Diaz. He’s a pressure striker who favors loops and hooks over straights, with a fast but inaccurate jab. His takedown defense is lackluster and his cardio isn’t great. Gomes should be looking to wrestle here, but his entries and takedown attempts line up closely enough with Kwon’s weak takedown defense that this one probably stays standing.
Martin Kozak (6-0) vs Christian Echols (8-4)
Kozak is a tall, rangy southpaw with a busy jab and heavy use of teep kicks to soften opponents up. His takedown defense is strong, backed by judo throws to counter wrestling attempts, and if the fight hits the mat he gets to work immediately, knees to the body from half mount, elbows to the head, until he breaks his opponent by submission or TKO. Echols is the sacrificial lamb in this matchup. He’s built his record on plodding, basic striking and ground and pound against regional level competition, occasionally grabbing a neck when the ref doesn’t think it’s enough. That formula works against overmatched opposition, not here.
Reginaldo Geraldo Jr. (11-1) vs Isaac Moreno (8-0)
Geraldo Jr. looks like a legitimate UFC roster addition whether he wins or loses this fight. He’s got power, bounce, and slick, fast grappling, with cardio that holds up well. The one question mark is his striking defense, which isn’t where it needs to be and raises questions about his longevity in tougher fights. Moreno takes his time hunting for the one big shot that ends things, but he’s too heavy footed for this pace and is likely to run into trouble late.
Quentin Pasley (3-0) vs Arlind Berisha (6-0)
Full disclosure, I didn’t tape this one when I wrote this, but I’ve been a fan of Berisha since the beginning and it wouldn’t matter who he was fighting here.
My Bets:
Berisha ITD, Kozak ITD = +144 ( 1.5u )
Loud/Natividad Fight Starts Round 2, Reginaldo Junior ML, Kozak TKO/KO Rd 1 = +498 ( .5u )
Lotto: Natividad Round 3 or Decision, Kwon/Gomes Starts Round 2, Kozak Round 1, Junior by Sub or Points, Pasley/Berisha Ends TKO/KO = +2904
All odds and bets are based on FanDuel and if you’d like to sign-up today, feel free to use my referral link: https://fndl.ca/ha6sgoq
