Road To UFC Season 5 Day 1 Breakdown & Predictions

Regezhen (11-1) vs. Dagiisuren Chagnaadorj (10-2)

 

Regezhen

 

Pros:
-Solid cardio
-Throws from different angles
-Explosive
-Solid bodywork
-Good shot placement
-Chopping leg kicks

 

Cons:
-TDD needs work
-Slows late in the fight

 

Regezhen is one of the most exciting fighters in this tournament. He has the kind of explosiveness that can completely change a fight in an instant. While his record includes two submission wins, he’s very much a striker. Both of those submissions came by armbar, which suggests some comfort attacking off his back, but that’s not where he’s at his best.

 

Grappling is the biggest question mark in his game, and it becomes more apparent as fights wear on. His takedown defense has its moments—he sprawls well and does a nice job digging for underhooks—but he can also get himself into trouble by throwing himself off balance or trying to hip out too aggressively. Off his back, he’s active and threatening, but he often spends too much time there.

 

On the feet, though, he’s a blast to watch. Regezhen is an unpredictable striker who mixes in spinning attacks, backfists, and sharp upward elbows. His body work is especially nasty and should remain a major focus of his offense. He’ll jab the body, kick the body, and string together excellent body-head combinations. When he fights freely, he’s incredibly dangerous. When he senses an opening, he’s lethal with the flying knee. He can land it moving forward or backward, and he’ll often extend through the target with his shin, making it even more devastating.

 

My biggest concern is his cardio. By the third round, he’s no longer nearly as explosive. The power remains, but the danger level drops noticeably. Even so, Regezhen is a legitimate sleeper in this tournament.

 

Dagiisuren Chagnaadorj

 

Pros:
-Decent in the pocket

 

Cons:
-Poor TDD
-Limited ground game
-Slows volume
-No setups
-Poor accuracy
-Plodding footwork

 

I watched everything available on Chagnaadorj, and it’s tough to find many positives. His best moments come in brief exchanges, but he offers very little power. He swings wildly, often missing more than he lands, and rarely sets anything up. His footwork is also a major issue, making it difficult for him to consistently find his range or enter the pocket cleanly.

 

While he owns three submission victories, that record is a bit misleading. There’s not much wrestling upside here, and his jiu-jitsu can be sloppy. It’s hard to envision him having much success in this tournament. He won’t outwrestle opponents, he’s unlikely to catch anyone with a big shot, and his questionable cardio makes it difficult to trust him over extended stretches.

 

Prediction:
I can’t see any result other than Regezhen smoking him. He’s better in every single area. The speed is gonna be clear, and the advantage in explosiveness is gonna be an issue for Chagnaadorj. The pick is Regezhen by KO in round one.

 

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