We are back with the semifinals of Road to UFC Season 5. If you want to go back and see my predictions for Day One, click here; for Day Two, click here. I went 13-3 on my predictions, and the goal is to do even better here.
Before we get to the semifinal matchups, I’ll give quick predictions on the UFC bouts; I don’t care about either, but China should go 2-0 there.
Flyweight
Jiniushiyue (17-4) Vs. Takeru Uchida (9-2)
Jiniushiyue
On the feet, he’s limited, rarely extending his punches or offering much beyond basic entries. However, he does show more layers than a purely one-dimensional striker. He’s a reliable offensive and defensive wrestler with strong chain-wrestling ability.
Once he gets on top, he’s not just holding position—he’s heavy, settles well, and delivers meaningful ground-and-pound that can wear opponents down over time. His scrambling is also a key strength, and in messy scrambles, he’s usually the one coming out on top.
Takeru Uchida
Uchida is a pure jiu-jitsu specialist, which has got him to this point thus far. Uchida is a submission threat from anywhere, anytime. His lightning-fast transitions and slick jiu-jitsu let him chain attacks and find finishes with minimal space. That fluidity, combined with his technique, makes him the type of grappler who doesn’t need much time or room to threaten a submission.
His wrestling has improved, particularly in chaining attempts and getting fights into his preferred grappling range. However, he still tends to force entries at times and remains fairly one-dimensional, with everything built around his ground game. He’s dangerous on the mat against anyone, but can be neutralized by opponents who can manage range and consistently defend the takedown.
Prediction:
Both guys had completely different fights to open the season. Jiniushiyue had a competitive three-round fight, and Uchida won in the first round. The difference is that Jiniushiyue fought a solid opponent, whereas Uchida had the biggest layup of all time.
A fight between two grapplers, but Uchida is the only one who needs to pursue that. Jiniushiyue isn’t anything special on his feet, but he’s clean and has fast hands. Uchida is outmatched on the feet, and where he’d like to be, he’s simply outgunned there as well. Jiniushiyue is the much better wrestler. Uchida is a flashier grappler, but Jiniushiyue is better at controlling, scrambles, doing damage, and can do it at a higher pace.
Uchida needs a quick submission, but Jiniushiyue has never lost by submission. On the flip side, Uchida has been submitted by a much lesser fighter than Jiniushiyue is. I predict a fun, grappling-heavy round one that will lead to Uchida gassing out. From there, I have Jiniushiyue taking over and getting the stoppage later in the fight.
Jiniushiyue via TKO (GnP), round 2.
Joseph Larcinese (6-0) Vs. Takaya Suzuki (8-1)
Joseph Larcinese
Larcinese is a smaller flyweight at 5’3″. While not the most athletic athlete in the field, he makes his style work through effort and positioning. Although I was excited for Larcinese coming into this season, I question if he should even be here. In the opening round, I figured he’d run through Ryoga Arimoto, but I think he lost rounds two and three.
He does the right things—cutting off the cage and using head movement to work his way inside. That said, against better athletes, he can get stuck at range and picked apart. We saw that recently against Arimoto, and in the past against Oden Muscat.
In the opening round breakdowns, I mentioned he doesn’t fade and actually gets better as the fight goes on. That couldn’t be further from the truth, considering he got worse and worse as his last fight went on. That tells me that if he’s forced to fight on the outside and can’t bully his way in, the damage received is gonna drain him. Once inside the pocket, he’s very active, ripping punches to the head, body, over the shoulder, and up the middle. He does a solid job of rolling with shots and operating comfortably in boxing range.
His takedown defense has been a relative weakness, but it’s not always straightforward to capitalize on, as he’s difficult to hold down for long stretches. He scrambles well, bounces back to his feet quickly, and often works his way into better positions. You also can’t freely shoot on him, as he threatens dangerous front chokes and guillotines in transitions. On top, he’s relentless, constantly hunting the back and threatening the rear-naked choke repeatedly until something opens up.
Takaya Suzuki
Suzuki is not only the favorite to win the flyweight bracket but arguably the best prospect of the entire season. Nobody had a tougher opening round fight in Otgonbaatar Boldbaatar, and Suzuki put him away in round one. Suzuki has been so impressive in his career that he sits at #16 in our rankings.
With his speed, footwork, and timing, opponents are often forced to either shoot from too far out or rush in recklessly just to close the distance. Suzuki is a lethal counter-striker, particularly with his left hand and right hook, and he’ll also punish entries with sharp knees to the body. From southpaw, he’s like a loaded gun waiting to fire that straight left. He also has a strong rear left kick to the body, which he uses effectively to manage range and break opponents down over time.
The biggest question mark around him is his takedown defense, which has shown some vulnerability in the past. It’s never been a major issue, though, and even when opponents do manage to get him down, it’s not easy to consistently replicate. Still very young, Suzuki clearly has a lot more to show. Even based on what he’s already displayed and considering he’s not yet close to his prime, he’s a terrifying prospect for anyone in the division.
Prediction:
Larcinese is outmatched here. If he’s gonna struggle against the likes of Arimoto, I can’t imagine how he’ll deal with Suzuki. Larcinese should know he has to wrestle and push that gameplan to the max. Suzuki has questionable TDD, so he needs to exploit that. The problem is Suzuki has a massive advantage in speed, power, and explosiveness. Larcinese doesn’t deal well at range, so good luck against a sharpshooter in Suzuki.
I think this is an easy fight to call. Larcinese isn’t a great athlete, and that will show against someone who’s elite like Suzuki. I don’t think it will be too long in the fight before Suzuki finds the finishing blow.
Takaya Suzuki via TKO (straight left), Round 1
