Contender Series 2026 Episode 2 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- They’re giving Perez a softball here after his fight last season. He was winning against Manoel Souza until he faded late. Perez is young, scrappy, and exciting to watch. He’s shown versatility throughout his career, with some grappling-heavy fights, others striking-focused, and plenty where he blends both well. The biggest knock on him is his inconsistency, especially in fights he should win comfortably.

Luckily for him, Paxton is on the same level as the guys Perez has already beaten. Paxton has beaten poor competition whose records resemble lottery tickets. He’s a solid Division I wrestler out of North Dakota, but I’m still not sold. His striking is rough, and I actually rate Perez’s wrestling higher, with Perez clearly having the better jiu-jitsu. On the feet, it isn’t close. Perez is faster, more dynamic, and has far more weapons.

Pick: Perez by Round 1 KO/TKO.

Cedric Dumas– This is lowkey a banger that I think a lot of people might sleep on.

Nicholas Holt- Another week, another resume that’s hard to trust. Paxton enters with an undefeated record, but one that comes with plenty of asterisks- he’s never faced an opponent with a record better than two wins over .500. I think he has some tools. He should have excellent cardio after training with Elevation Fight Team, and he was a former wrestler at North Dakota State, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough to beat Cristian Pérez.

While I’m not in love with Pérez and don’t think he’s a world-beater, I do believe he’s more than capable of dominating this matchup. Pérez came up short in last year’s DWCS against a much tougher opponent in Manoul Souza, but I can’t see him running into the same problems here. He should hold a significant striking advantage, and I believe his grappling is also quite underrated. Paxton will likely look for early level changes, but I’m expecting Pérez to keep this one standing and overwhelm him with a level of talent he’s simply never faced before.

Pick: Pérez by Round 1 KO/TKO

Patrick Danna- Happy to see Cristian Perez brought back, as he was one of the losers from last year that I wanted to see again. I’m pretty high on Perez and think his fun grappling and slick striking can really make for some entertaining fights. His loss last year exposed flaws in cardio and striking defense; however, this isn’t a matchup where those worry me.

Logan Paxton was someone I heard about from APFC, but didn’t know much about him. I was definitely underwhelmed when I taped him for this fight, as he just seems like a wrestler who struggles to consistently land takedowns. Even against weak competition, his strong suit hasn’t looked particularly dominant. In his lone loss, he would’ve won had he not been stood up for throwing illegal strikes. Does the same jab-overhand-headkick combination on repeat, very predictable.

Perez is the more explosive, technical, and skilled fighter. Despite Paxton being primarily a wrestler, I think Perez may be a better grappler too. On the feet, I expect Perez to chew Paxton up from the outside with his speed, eventually dropping him and securing the finish via GnP or submission.

Pick: Perez by Round 1 KO/TKO or SUB 

Chase Gurotsky- Christian Perez, after losing to Manoel Sousa on DWCS last season, is aging relatively well and getting a second shot. He’s coming off a win against 6-7 Gilberto Santos, which isn’t anything special, but he got it done quickly. He is definitely a finisher, with 11 of his 14 wins coming by finish, and has gotten a finish in his last five wins. I do think he is more than capable of a finish on the feet or the ground, but I’m not sure if his opponent will let that happen.

Logan Paxton is a 10-1, 31-year-old who is on a 9-fight win streak. Eight of those wins have come by way of finish, and overall he holds a 90% finish rate. While he hasn’t fought the best of the best, he seems to have a lot of cancellations, which could play into the level of opponent. Training at Elvation Fight Team and Havoc MMA, he isn’t coming out of a super small gym. While this doesn’t really compare to The Goat Shed, where Perez trains, I think Paxton is prepared for a step up. While I could be completely wrong, I think this fight will be more competitive than it seems.

Pick: Perez by Decision 

Xavi Ryder- I hadn’t seen much of Logan Paxton other than some highlights on Twitter, but I came away from watching his tape not very impressed. Except for his second pro fight against JaCobi Jones, his competition has been weak. On the feet, he obviously has some power but not much more than that. His jab isn’t very good, and he wings a lot of big punches. Everything he throws is full power, and he puts on a lot of pressure. Paxton tries to get the fight to the floor quite often and has done so in a variety of ways. My problem, though, is again, it isn’t against good competition, and even then, sometimes he has to work really hard to make it happen.

Cristian Perez is getting brought back for a second chance on the Contender Series after having a tough outing against Manoel Sousa. Perez did well through two rounds but wasn’t able to carry that into the third, where he was finished. I believe Perez has Paxton covered anywhere this fight goes, but his biggest advantage is on the feet. He is the much sharper striker and has the faster hands. I see Perez stopping Paxton’s takedown attempts and lighting him up on the feet.

Pick: Perez by Round 1 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre – Perez very nearly upset Manoel Sousa last season before he gassed out and was stopped in the final round, but that performance has aged fairly well given that Sousa is now 2-0 since joining the UFC. The 26-year-old also put in the kind of bounce-back performance you want to see by making short work of an admittedly overmatched opponent in April, and he’s certainly much more deserving of an immediate call back to DWCS than some of the other fighters returning this year.

All but one of of Paxton’s wins have come via finish, but the level of competition he’s faced leaves a lot to be desired. His wrestling skills could potentially cause some problems for Perez and help him slow this fight down, but I expect that Perez’s own grappling skills should allow him to largely keep things standing.

“Puas” holds a decided advantage in this fight while the two men are trading strikes, and that should present him with a clear path to victory and a UFC contract.

Pick: Perez by Round 2 KO/TKO

Cangrejo Ruiz- Fine fight here. Perez had a really good performance last year before gassing out against a good prospect like Manumito. I am likely the highest on Perez from the entire Prospect Vault team, so I consider Lynch a few levels below Perez. I expect Perez to come up changing levels and unleashing, and I don’t think Lynch will be able to weather the storm.

Pick: Perez by Round 1 KO/TKO