Contender Series 2026 Episode 5 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- I love Kwon and all, but how in the world did he get this fight? He fought last season, coming off a loss, and got brutally finished by Juan Diaz. Now he’s on a two-fight skid and gets another opportunity, which is absurd. No matter how fun his fights are, this is nothing short of laziness from the matchmakers. It’s also clearly a setup fight to get him into the UFC against Apollo Gomes.

Of all the talented Brazilian featherweights they could bring in, they went with Gomes, who isn’t even a top-100 prospect out of Brazil. That’s not to say he has no skills because he certainly does. He’s light on his feet, throws combinations to the body and head, and is difficult to take down. Still, his cardio isn’t good, he’s chinny, and his optics are terrible. He allows his opponents to dictate the pace and constantly pushes him backward, which is going to play right into Kwon’s hands.

Kwon’s pressure, constant aggression, and ability to push a high pace are going to break Gomes down. Kwon is open to getting knocked out, but Gomes doesn’t have the kind of power I think it will take to put him away.

Pick: Kwon by Round 2 KO/TKO

Cedric Dumas- Kwon’s return to Contender Series is an unusual second opportunity. He previously appeared on the show and suffered a spectacular knockout, and he now returns without another professional fight in between.

The Korean remains dangerous because of his striking. When the fight stays at range, his speed, timing, and power make him a serious threat. The problem is that his defensive vulnerabilities remain relevant, particularly against an opponent who can change levels.

Gomes brings a more balanced skill set. The Brazilian can compete on the feet, but his grappling is the part of his game that could ultimately decide the fight. Kwon has shown vulnerability to submissions, making Gomes’ ability to force takedowns particularly important.

This is a fight where strategy should dictate the result. If the fight remains standing, I favor Kwon. His experience and striking should help him find cleaner exchanges. If Gomes can consistently get the fight to the mat, the matchup changes dramatically in his favor. The key question is whether Kwon’s takedown defense can hold up for 15 minutes against an opponent with a legitimate submission threat. I believe it can. That gives Kwon the edge in a fight where the margin for error is extremely small.

Pick: Kwon by Round 2 KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt- Fighter talent aside, this is probably the most disgusting booking of the entire year. Kwon Won Il is a DWCS returner who didn’t really deserve the opportunity last year, coming off a first-round finish loss in ONE Championship before being knocked out by a spinning back elbow from Juan Diaz in the second round. Kwon hasn’t stepped inside the cage since then, so yes, he’ll be entering this fight on a two-fight losing streak… pure insanity.

Sure, we can talk about how much fun Kwon Won Il is. He’s never been in a boring fight, and he’s no bad fighter whatsoever. It’s just the principle of it that’s so extremely wrong. He’s 31 years old, so the clock is already ticking, and he can barely even be considered a prospect anymore after spending years in ONE Championship. Especially at bantamweight, too. My goodness, if I were Asaf Chopurov right now, I’d be absolutely fuming. There’s really no explanation for this outside of the entertainment aspect, but even then, there are plenty of show-stopping fighters more deserving than Kwon. The worst part is that they’re feeding Kwon an extremely favorable matchup. Just sign the guy if you want him on the roster this badly… why are we wasting opportunities?

Nevertheless, we’re putting all that to the side for now, and Kwon Won Il can still be viewed as an all-action addition to the season. He’s a “live by the sword, die by the sword” type of fighter, always willing to throw down in the middle for some fireworks. He’s constantly pushing forward, sometimes to his own demise, but more often than not, he’s slamming on the gas to control the pace from the opening bell. His opponent, Apollo Gomes, will need to be ready from the start. He cannot afford to come out slow against Kwon. Outside of having his chin cracked against Diaz and being dropped twice by body shots during his ONE career, Kwon has held up for the majority of his career on the feet. That’s a pretty surprising takeaway considering Kwon’s striking defense leaves much to be desired, with his chin often far too high in the air. Once the fight hits the mat, things have been a little shaky as well. His defense against Diaz was strong, both finding his way back up along the cage and defending level changes, but I could see him being controlled by a stronger grappler inside the UFC. Obviously, it’ll be a chore in itself to match Kwon’s pace, and luckily for him, he won’t need to worry about defending many takedowns against Gomes. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kwon is tested on the ground in the near future.

Shifting over to Apollo Gomes, he’s another questionable booking for me, as the matchmakers are once again going away from the principles of DWCS. Gomes is coming off a split-decision win, which simply isn’t enough to earn an opportunity in my book. The opposition was decent in Zebenzui Ruiz, who had scored a victory over Raphael Uchegbu in the 2022 PFL Playoffs, but ultimately, Gomes’ performance was lackluster. Ruiz had far too much success against a fighter who’s receiving a DWCS opportunity.

Though, just as I said with Kwon, we’ll put that to the side for now and focus on Gomes’ skill set. He’s a striker first who goes to both the head and body, a refreshing asset to possess in MMA, though he doesn’t generate much power behind his shots. Against Ruiz, he did the majority of his work from the outside, constantly keeping his head off the center line with swift movements. If he were to add more volume, touching his opponent from the outside with jabs and low kicks instead of waiting for the counter hook, Gomes would be a much more effective fighter at bantamweight.

Gomes doesn’t have the power in his hands to sit back and wait for the perfect shot, and that’s going to spell serious trouble against Kwon’s pressure. I can see Gomes being on the run for the entire fight, and while he may escape the first one or two rounds, Kwon will eventually wear him down and find the late finish.

Pick: Kwon by Round 3 KO/TKO

Xavi Ryder– In an odd and probably undeserving Contender Series second chance, Won Il Kwon is returning off the back of two knockout losses. He was finished early last year in ONE Championship and then by Juan Díaz on Contender Series with a nasty spinning elbow. I thought I would come out of tape with an Apollo Gomes pick, but that is not the case.

In terms of skillset, Gomes is the more well-rounded fighter, as he is a submission threat. Kwon has lost by submission twice in his career, but not since 2020. Kwon showed solid takedown defense and the ability to get back to his feet last year against Díaz, who I find to be a better wrestler than Gomes. On the feet, we know Kwon is dangerous and willing to make his opponents fight at a high pace, but his lack of striking defense is a concern. I think Gomes can make it interesting, as he isn’t a bad striker himself, but I don’t think he is powerful enough to take advantage of the openings Kwon will leave him. This leads me to believe that Kwon will defend takedowns, wear him down with pressure, and find the knockout win.

Pick: Kwon by Round 2 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre– Some of the matchups and personnel choices scheduled for this season of DWCS have rightfully been criticized, but immediately bringing a guy back off of two losses is right up there with the most questionable of those decisions.

Even if I don’t feel that Kwon should have been brought right back after Juan Diaz knocked him out last year, “Pretty Boy” still put together a very solid run in ONE Championship and should present a lot of problems for Gomes. Kwon is going to bring the fight to the Brazilian and keep a high pace, provided his confidence hasn’t been tempered at all by that spinning elbow from Diaz.

The South Korean will definitely eat some shots as he comes forward and has never been especially sound defensively, but Gomes also doesn’t hit particularly hard, and I expect that he’ll crumble at some point under the onslaught of offense coming his way.

Pick: Kwon by Round 2 KO/TKO

Cangrejo Ruiz- It’s clear the matchmakers like Kwon, given the situation he is being brought in, and it is understandable; he is a really fun watch that has a ton of dynamism regardless of where the fight goes, and his lack of defense results in reckless fights. His opponent, Apollo, has a complete toolset, but I don’t consider it dangerous enough to put Kwon in difficult situations. I expect Kwon to outscore him wherever the fight goes.

Pick: Kwon by Decision

Benjamin Keith- I don’t need to tell you that Kwon doesn’t deserve this shot, I’m sure my colleagues will have covered that plenty in their breakdowns. The UFC clearly likes the fun fighter, so they should’ve just signed him up outright before last season.

Kwon’s loss on the Contender’s series last year isn’t a bad one; Juan Diaz is going to be a successful UFC fighter. But Kwon is a striking specialist who’s coming off two straight losses on the feet. There is a lot to like about his game; he is dangerous and dynamic with his hands. He walks his opponents down and sets a pace on the feet that is hard to match. His takedown defense is okay, but it’s what a smart opponent would instantly test.

I went into this wanting to pick against Kwon because I do genuinely think momentum is a thing, and he’s coming off two losses going into the biggest fight of his life. The thing is, though, Gomes isn’t UFC caliber. He’s a sharp striker but not powerful. His Jiu Jitsu is good, but his wrestling is just okay. I don’t trust his gas tank, and I think he’s going to be on the back foot a lot in this fight. There is a world where Gomes takes Kwon down and finds success on the ground, but given that Kwon hasn’t fought since last year, I bet he’s been working hard to fix the holes in his game.

Pick: Kwon by Round 2 KO/TKO