Contender Series 2026 Episode 6 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- Guillon/Hernandez is a fight between two lesser middleweights with way more flaws than anything. Guillon is a submission grappler, but his wrestling sucks, and so does his grappling defense. He doesn’t have many options on the feet either, but he does a good job staying long behind his jab and straight punches. He’s clearly the better grappler and has the better cardio.

Hernandez is basically getting this fight off the viral moment he had with Strickland last year. In his last fight, he was put on death’s door in round two against a 38-year-old with an 11-20 record. His offense can become predictable, and he relies heavily on his physical strength rather than clean technique, especially with his wrestling and submission work. His positional awareness is questionable, and his takedown defense has shown vulnerabilities even against lesser competition. He has the power and aggression to overwhelm opponents early, but fighting at one pace and forcing the same sequences will be a problem against better competition.

Hernandez’s game plan will, and probably should, be to fight like an idiot and try to overwhelm Guillon. It could work for him, but I see Guillon fighting behind the cleaner shots, surviving the early aggression, and eventually finding a late third-round submission.

Pick: Gullion by Round 3 Submission

Cedric Dumas- This is another matchup where the level of opposition makes it difficult to draw strong conclusions from the records. Both men have finished a high percentage of their opponents, but much of that success has come against regional competition.

The physical advantage belongs overwhelmingly to Guillon. At 6’4″, he has a significant height and frame advantage, while his judo gives him a natural path to putting Hernandez on the mat. His ground-and-pound should be the most important weapon in the fight.

Hernandez needs the fight to become chaotic. His best opportunities will come through scrambles, particularly if Guillon gives him openings to attack submissions. The problem is that Hernandez is giving up too much size at middleweight and hasn’t shown the takedown defense needed to consistently dictate where the fight takes place.

Guillon should use his size and judo to control the position, force Hernandez into extended defensive sequences, and eventually open up the ground-and-pound. This is more about physicality and positional control than showcasing a high-level prospect.

Pick: Guillon by Round 2 KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt- I’ve never been a Luis Hernandez guy, and I don’t think today’s the day that changes. I genuinely think he’s earned this opportunity just by going viral after pissing off Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland at TNU. That whole thing was pretty stupid, and if the matchmaker’s thoughts are that they can eventually build up Hernandez for a title shot with bad blood, that’s even more stupid.

Hernandez’s skillset is lackadaisical: he just rushes forward, forces his frame on weaker opponents, and manhandles his way to an undefeated record. My guess is he’ll try the same here, but the problem is Hugo Guillon is 6-foot-4, and he’s not going to go away easily. Before I get ahead of myself, It’s not like Guillon has fought a “who’s who, so perhaps there’s some unwarranted confidence here, but the Frenchman’s approach is much more cerebral than Hernandez’s. He fights behind a solid, damaging jab, and sets up his attacks with nuance, poking his opposition from range before exploding into a fight-ending sequence.

Hugo Guillon should outsmart Hernandez with ease, and if there’s any chance for the American, it’ll be crashing in early for a knockout. I don’t see that happening against Guillon.

Pick: Guillon by Decision

Chase Gurotsky- The 30-year-old American Luis Hernandez has never lost in his pro or amateur career, with a combined record of 12-0 and a 100% finish rate. He is 7-0 as a pro, and his best win to date was over Miles Hunsinger, when Sean Strickland infamously stormed the cage and attacked him.

Hugo Guillon is currently on a 6-fight win streak and has 6 finishes in his 7 wins, with 4 by KO/TKO and 2 by Submission. Like his opponent, he hasn’t faced the best competition; however, he’s mostly looked miles above his opponents. I think Hugo should be the better grappler, and might want to use that as Luis brings quite the storm. Hugo will want to keep the fight clean. Luis will want to make it dirty. I think that the more technical fighter will win out here, though. I think Luis will come out hot, and if Hugo can survive the first, I think a 2nd- or 3rd-round finish is very much in the cards. I could see a TKO or Submission; however, I don’t think it will be easy to put out Hernandez with your hands.

Pick: Guillon by Round 2 Submission 

Xavi Ryder– If you don’t watch a lot of regional MMA and Hernandez looks familiar to you, it is probably because you saw Sean Strickland try to attack him. While his 7-0 record with all finish wins looks good on paper, his competition has been rough. Hernandez is getting this opportunity on Contender Series off the back of beating an old 11-19 opponent. Hernandez usually wins fights by overwhelming his opponents with his physicality and grappling, but I don’t think that approach will work here.

Hernandez takes on another grappler whom I believe has the better skills: Hugo Guillon. In my opinion, he has the better, more dangerous approach on the feet, and in the grappling, I expect Guillon to get Hernandez to the ground. Once on the ground, Guillon will find opportunities to land his ground and pound to finish the fight.

Pick: Guillon by Round 2 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre– I’ll be curious to hear how heavily the commentary team leans into Hernandez’s viral interaction with Sean Strickland, as that feels like the primary reason “The Stache” received a call for DWCS.

That isn’t to say that Guillon would be a very impressive addition to the UFC middleweight division either, as the Frenchman is a decent grappler but lacks the wrestling necessary to bring things to the mat very effectively. That might not even be an issue here, though, as Hernandez hasn’t shown much of an ability to fend off takedowns. He’ll definitely bring plenty of aggression while the two men are standing, so Guillon will need to survive that pressure while using his jab and straight punches to set up a takedown or possibly land a knockdown.

I won’t be all that surprised Hernandez manages to overwhelm Guillon on the feet before he’s able to bring things to that mat, but “The White Walker” may have an easier time finding a takedown given that he’s going to have a massive size advantage in this matchup.

Pick: Guillon by Round 2 Submission

Cangrejo Ruiz- Typical Middleweight contender fights, just underwhelming. I might rate Hernandez higher than most; he is really physical and has used it to his advantage so far. He has some grappling to go with it, but he is really limited overall. Guillon is a better grappler, but he is much clunkier on the feet and struggles with explosiveness despite being a big middleweight. I think Hernandez will overwhelm Guillon early and find the finish before going into the second.

Pick: Hernandez by Round 1 KO/TKO

Benjamin Keith – This is a fight that is frankly tiresome to talk about. Whoever wins it will get it by finish and end up a punching bag in the UFC. There are good middleweights out there, but these are not them.

Hernandez is a bulldog. He is tough, his Jiu-Jitsu is serviceable, and he has good power. He relies heavily on his physicality but doesn’t have the size to fight the way he does against the vast majority of UFC middleweights. He would actually be a legitimate prospect if he were fighting at welterweight, but as it stands, his physical, in-your-face style is asking for trouble against powerful middleweights.

Hugo Guillon is similar to Hernandez but has the size to make it work. He is a grapple-heavy fighter with good ground-and-pound and Jiu-Jitsu. He doesn’t pose much of a threat on the feet, but has solid kicks that I would like to see him utilize more. I think he will prove a little stronger than Hernandez and will be able to get to mount at some point.

Pick: Guillon by Round 2 KO/TKO (Ground & Pound)

Pat Danna – This fight broke my brain. Having to contemplate as hard as I did between two low-level guys like this is genuinely insane. A bunch of Guillon’s recent tape is hard to find, so I’m not sure if he’s improved or not. Hernandez, on the other hand, had his career-worst performance in his last fight and has mostly been a welterweight.

Hernandez’s style and early pace will likely counter Guillon well early, but he doesn’t actually do much effectively on offense in the process. Unless he gets Guillon down, mounts him, and shows more aggression than he ever has, it’ll be tough to get a contract. Guillon will own him at range, but I doubt Hernandez lets the fight take place there.

The biggest caveat in this fight is the cardio on both sides, which has looked bad. Hernandez fights at a high pace, then gasses out quickly after setting that pace himself. Guillon’s only loss came when he smothered and drowned Jack Jeanne for 4 minutes, then gassed out and gave up to be finished in Round 1 of a fight he was dominating. I couldn’t tell you who has the better cardio here, but I think Guillon’s power in the clinch and at range will be the deciding factor for me. I heavily debated going the other way, though, because they are both that bad.

Pick: Guillon by Round 2 KO/TKO