Contender Series 2026 Week 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- I’m not usually a fan of guys who lost on the CS getting a second chance so fast. With that said, Mulumba is someone worth bringing back. He was so close to beating Rahiki, who is doing well in the UFC right now. Mulumba is an exciting, explosive athlete who thrives in chaos. He throws with power and volume, lands hard leg kicks, is dangerous in the clinch with elbows, and constantly pressures opponents. His takedown defense has held up well, and while his wrestling and submissions aren’t highly technical, his athleticism and aggression make them effective. His ground-and-pound is especially damaging, and he’s always hunting the finish.

We got a fighter from the New England region, which typically means a freebie for the other guy. Pagliarulo, though, is one of the better guys from the area. This year he went from training at the New England Cartel to moving up to Colorado. Now he trains at Tiger Beetle Martial Arts with Cory Sandhagen, which is an excellent move. Pagliarulo is a good striker who uses his range on the outside with jabs and straights. He’ll actively switch stances and give different looks. He’s a sniper with those straights, whether that’s from leading in or countering someone coming in. Pagliarulo also has some brutal ones that he can step in with, launch through the air, or just let them rip in the Thai clinch.

Pagliarulo is gonna have to be careful against Mulumba and keep him at range. He’s gonna have to fight nearly the perfect fight because I’m not too sure he can take a clean punch from Mulumba. I’m gonna pick Mulumba because he’s eventually gonna find his shot. He’s not one to accept being on the outside, as he’ll force his way in. I got Mulumba by TKO in round 1.

Cedric Dumas- Ananias Mulumba ranks among the most deserving returning fighters on this year’s Contender Series. He remained competitive against Marwan Rahiki until the finish came, showing the kind of live power that would fit comfortably on a UFC roster.

Tom Pagliarulo represents a familiar New England profile: durable, aggressive, but lacking significant wins. Outside of Don Shainis, most of his résumé has come against fighters with losing records, and even his PFL appearance was against a 9-6 Matt Turnbull.

This should unfold primarily as a striking contest. Mulumba brings the heavier hands and more proven finishing ability. While there is a legitimate question about whether his chin has fully recovered from the Rahiki knockout, the smarter bet remains on his power closing the show before that becomes a factor. Mulumba by knockout feels like the most likely outcome.

Pick: Mulumba by 1st round KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt– If you didn’t watch Ananias Mulumba’s fight with Marwan Rahiki on last season’s DWCS, I suggest you start there before reading any further. Honestly, I felt like you could’ve signed Mulumba off that knockout loss alone given the fireworks that unfolded- though I do understand the reasoning behind passing on him. Regardless, I couldn’t be more excited that Mulumba is back for another opportunity.

Mulumba uses sharp angles and heavy hands to make up for his smaller stature, and it’s clear he’s got “dawg” in him. This time around, though, I think it would be wise for him to lean more on his grappling. He’s got an excellent submission game that we haven’t really seen in his last two appearances, and I’d like to see a slightly safer approach from him. The UFC already knows he can put on an exciting fight- now it’s time to earn a clean win.

On the other side of the cage stands Tom Pagliarulo, who I honestly think deserves a little more respect in this matchup. His performance in the PFL Playoffs was impressive, and I believe there are legitimate paths to victory for him despite being at both a power and athleticism disadvantage. Pagliarulo stands 6 feet compared to Mulumba’s 5-foot-5, giving the Massachusetts native a shocking seven-inch height advantage. Straight punches down the middle will be key, and Pagliarulo possesses the tools to make that game plan work. His jab is accurate, and his Muay Thai style can do serious damage to smaller opponents. If Mulumba rushes in for takedowns, he’ll have to be wary of Pagliarulo’s knees.

This is really solid matchmaking by Sean Shelby. I think both Mulumba and Pagliarulo could end up having successful careers under the UFC banner. I’ve gone back and forth on this one for a while, so I don’t have a ton of confidence in my pick, but I think Mulumba can drag this fight into his world.

Pick: Mulumba by Round 2 Submission

PatrickDanna-A very close and competitive fight between two guys who deserved the chance. Mulumba featured in a top fight of last season against Marwan Rahiki, dropping the Australian prospect multiple times before being KO’d in Round 2. In his only fight since, Mulumba looked incredible and seems to have made real improvements. Already a strong grappler with some serious power, I’m interested to see how much he’s improved.

Pagliarulo is a breath of fresh air as a skilled New England prospect, something extremely rare nowadays. After his last loss, Pagliarulo has been on a first-round knockout spree. Although the level of competition is poor with a lot of walkovers, he’s clearly made strides. One of those KO wins came against former UFC fighter Don Shainis, whom he took less than two minutes to dispatch. Pagliarulo is a willing striker who has no problem taking a punch to land one back, but he fails to use his height and reach to its fullest extent. Since moving over to Tiger Beetle,  I would assume they’ve worked on his range management, but will it be enough to fix old habits?

Mulumba being undersized could be a big factor here. If he struggles to close the distance, his chances of winning drop significantly. However, Pagliarulo doesn’t manage the range as well as he should for his size, seemingly giving Mulumba options to get on the inside. I think both guys can hurt each other, but if Mulumba doesn’t get caught with an entry knee, he should be able to take the fight down. From there, he has a massive advantage and a clear path to a GnP or submission win. If this stays on the feet though, it’s closer to 50/50 with Pagliarulo’s volume and distance management being the key. Going with the guy who I think can win in both ways.

Pick: Mulumba by Round 2 KO/SUB 

Chase Gurotsky- Ananias “Metal” Mulumba takes on Tom “The Phenom” Pagliarulo, in Mulumba’s 2nd attempt at a UFC contract. Last time out, Mulumba was put out by the ultra-hot prospect, Marwan Rahiki; however, Mulumba was very close to finishing the fight in the 1st round. Mulumba returned to action after the loss with a nasty KO at UAE Warriors earlier this year. All 10 of his wins come by finish, with 5 by KO/TKO and 5 by submission. In his last five fights, he is 4-1 with three wins via TKO.

Tom Pagliarulo gets his first DWCS taste off of his four-fight streak, all 1st round KO/TKOs. He most recently fought for the PFL last August versus a not-so-good opponent. His two losses aren’t the worst, but I do feel he will be a bit outgunned in this one. At 29, he is not old, but he is the older fighter, and I feel he has fought the lesser of opponents than Mulumba. I think Mulumba will hurt Tom on the feet, which will lead to a sub for Metal.

Pick: Mulumba 2nd round Sub

Xavi Ryder- I have always sung the praises of Mike Davis vs Sodiq Yusuff as my favorite DWCS fight, but last season, Mulumba’s fight may have stolen the top spot. He hurt a talented Marwan Rahiki multiple times and was very close to scoring himself a knockout victory. Mulumba is always going to be in awesome fights, and no matter where the fight goes, he is dangerous. His power is devastating, and he likes to force the action. While his striking is the most fun part of his game, due to his physicality, Mulumba has a good grappling game as well. For someone so dangerous and exciting on the feet, his five submission wins may surprise you.

On the other side is the much taller Tom Pagliarulo. I have never been a big fan of New England Cartel guys, but I do like the move to Cory Sandhagen’s new gym. Like his opponent, Pagliarulo is also a dangerous striker, but unlike his opponent, Pagliarulo has range on his side. He is going to need that range, as he cannot let Mulumba get inside and land on him. However, I do believe that is what will happen, so I’m taking Mulumba. I can see Mulumba getting himself a club and sub victory here, but I do think the knockout is more likely.

Pick: Mulumba via Round 1 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre – This will probably be one of the more visually striking matchups of this year’s DWCS slate, as Pagliarulo is going to absolutely tower over Mulumba. That being said, Pagliarulo didn’t face particularly stellar competition on the New England regional scene, and even his most recent fight with the PFL came against a fighter with a 9-6 record in Matt Turnbull.

Mulumba is only one fight removed from being knocked out by Marwan Rahiki on DWCS last year, but Rahiki has already proved how legit he is by securing a pair of finishes in his first two UFC outings. “Metal” also scored a first-round knockout against a very experienced opponent his last time out with UAE Warriors, and I think Mulumba’s explosiveness will allow him to quickly close the distance against Pagliarulo and connect with something big.

(Pick: Mulumba via Round 1 KO/TKO)

Cangrejo Ruiz- Fun fight as long as it will last between two dangerous KO artists with cardio issues. Despite Pagliarulo being the bigger guy, I see Mulumba as the most threatening, and I expect him to create the most damage. I expect Mulumba to be the better hammer.

Pick: Mulumba by R1 KO