Contender Series 2026 Week 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- It’s nice to see Alsaghir finally fighting someone who doesn’t draw a Social Security check. Still, Alsaghir is a true student of the game who has a nice blend of martial arts. Volume based on the feet, and is a good wrestler/grappler. Escarrega, I didn’t know about leading into this fight, which is never a good sign. He’s a fun watch and not bad at all, to my surprise. His level of competition isn’t really any better than who Alsaghir has fought. He’s dominating the same way Alsaghir has.

Escarrega is an unconventional striker who fights off pressure and swarms with punches. He’s what you’d call a marauder who’s gonna be in your face, constantly throwing something. His punches can look off but will crowd with volume and go body-head. Even on the ground, Escarrega is aggressive with the GnP. I’d say Escarrega is more of a fighter than an MMA fighter. I like Alsaghir here because he has more layers and actually has process to his game. Alsaghir by submission in round two is the pick.

Cedric Dumas- This shapes up as one of the closest fights on the card on paper. Fabrizio Escarrega holds a clear size advantage at 6’1″ and will look to impose constant forward pressure and high-volume striking from the opening bell. The issue is that much of his résumé has come against limited regional competition.

Abe Alsaghir’s schedule hasn’t been elite either, yet his skill set appears better suited for this specific matchup. He is the superior wrestler and grappler and should lean into that strength rather than trading in the pocket. While Alsaghir carries enough power to finish Escarrega, the Mexican’s relentless pace and output will likely make prolonged striking exchanges difficult.

If Alsaghir prioritizes takedowns, secures top position, and controls the fight on the mat, he should be able to neutralize Escarrega’s pressure and edge a decision. The right game plan gives the undefeated American the slight advantage in my book.

Pick : Alsaghir by decision

Nicholas Holt- I believe I’m higher on Abe Alsaghir than most, and while I understand he’s never really faced top-level competition, neither has his opponent, Fabrizio Escarrega. Alsaghir has flashed enough talent on the regional scene for me to buy into the hype. He’s great at winning, which sounds silly to say, but much like a smart NFL quarterback, Alsaghir takes what the defense gives him. While he can produce some of the “holy shit” moments Dana White is looking for, he’s very much an IQ-first fighter. Most of his game plans seem pre-calculated and well thought out – very rarely does he abandon his coaches’ advice.

He’ll be taking on Fabrizio Escarrega, a dangerous striker from Mexico who throws with relentless volume. Escarrega has been remarkably consistent in the way he fights – he’s looking to overwhelm his opposition no matter what it takes. He wants a dogfight and has convinced plenty of opponents to play his game, leading to several knockouts throughout his career.

I’m expecting Escarrega to come out hot, but I don’t think Alsaghir will fall into the same trap as Fabrizio’s previous opponents. The biggest disparity between these two is the wrestling, and I believe that once Escarrega starts pushing forward, Alsaghir will find an opening for a fight-defining level change.

Pick: Alsaghir by Round 1 Submission

Patrick Danna- This is where things get tricky for Week 1, as these next two fights could go either way. Alsaghir has shown solid skills in both striking and grappling, but doesn’t fully excel in either area. With that said, I do like what he brings to the table overall, with solid boxing and strong takedowns. The problem is that Alsaghir’s level of competition is bad; his resume is littered with 35+ year old fighters on losing streaks. While he’s performed well, it’s hard to gauge how good he really is.

I have similar issues with Escarrega, who’s faced his fair share of .500 fighters in his career. His gameplan is straightforward: apply intense pressure while exchanging volume in the pocket. Escarrega loves a brawl and will do whatever he can to force one early. His grappling and top game were also a surprise, being able to manage things on the ground. While I see an advantage and path for Alsaghir in the grappling, I worry that Escarrega’s pressure and volume will add up early and frustrate Alsaghir, leading to mistakes and openings as the fight goes.

Pick: Escarrega by Round 2/3 TKO 

Chase Gurotsky-  In my eyes, this is the closest matchup we have, as both guys come from not the best regional scenes. While Abe is the unbeaten one, Fabrizio’s only loss is due to him getting injured. At 8-0 Abe Alsaghir has 7 wins coming by finish and is on a 4-fight finish streak; however, half those wins are versus guys 41 years or older.

Like Abe, Frabizio Escarrega has 8 of his 9 wins coming by finish, with 7 of those by way of KO/TKO. This explosive Mexican striker gets a well-deserved DWCS shot. Since that injury, he is on a 3-fight win streak, with all wins by finish. His last win was a 41-second standing TKO versus a guy who had never been TKOed before. I see this fight going a few rounds, with Frabizio coming away with a late finish.

Pick: Escarrega by 3rd round TKO. 

Xavi Ryder- This is a close fight between two fighters that have been dominating but haven’t faced any high-level competition. Both guys are decently well-rounded, but on the ground, and specifically the wrestling, I have to give the advantage to Alsaghir. On the feet, Alsaghir has good striking, but Escarrega feels like the more dangerous striker to me. Escarrega is all action, looking to get in the pocket and force exchanges. I think the size advantage will play a role in this fight, as Alsaghir is 5’9” and Escarrega is 6’1”. There is definitely a world where Alsaghir can get his wrestling going to get the win. However, I’m going with the size and aggression on the feet of Escarrega.

Pick: Escarrega Round 2 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre – On a card featuring a couple of apparent mismatches, this stands out as arguably the most intriguing and well-matched fight. Alsaghir may be the one that boasts the undefeated record, but the only loss on Escarrega’s resume came as a result of an arm injury, and both men are proven finishers.

Neither man has faced an especially stiff level of competition, so if things don’t end during the early going it’ll be interesting to see how they both deal with some potential adversity. Escarrega’s size advantage and aggression could make things very difficult for Alsaghir on the feet, but I think that “The Killer” will be able to nullify that by bringing things to the mat so he can find a submission or possibly end things with ground and pound.

(Pick: Alsaghir via Round 3 Submission)

Cangrejo Ruiz-  This is a fight with a lot of unknowns as both guys are unproven. Alsaghir is more technical and a better wrestler, while Escarrega has the physical advantage and is more aggressive. In the end, I trust Alsaghir’s tools and IQ to bring the fight where he needs to get the win, but I don’t see him finding the finish.

Pick Alsaghir by Decision