Contender Series 2026 Episode 10 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- I used to think Cabral was a promising middleweight prospect until his questionable split-decision win over 10-8, Perry Stargel. Cabral is an accomplished IBJJF grappler but hardly wrestles beyond a few decent trips. His striking is fine for a BJJ guy, carrying power in his overhands and leg kicks, but he lacks technique, explosiveness, and head movement.

Stargel rocked him multiple times, so I can only imagine what Da Lapa will do. Da Lapa has questions on the ground, but Cabral doesn’t have the wrestling to exploit them. Da Lapa could pick him apart if he used his range better, but his pressure and combinations against the cage should be enough. Cabral is durable, but I have Da Lapa by TKO in round two.

Cedric Dumas- This is probably the best fight on the card outside of the main event. Neither man is operating at an especially high level yet, but both are interesting enough to watch.

Cabral narrowly escaped his last fight with a split decision and spent much of the rest of his career beating lesser opposition. There are some Mahamed Aly vibes here: a Brazilian prospect who has built his record in a softer U.S. regional environment rather than going through the tougher domestic circuit. The grappling background is legitimate, though, and that gives him a path if he can consistently get Da Lapa to the mat.

Da Lapa is hardly a finished product himself. His LFA Brazil experience is limited, and much of his résumé has come against modest regional competition. Still, he looks like the more complete fighter to me. He has the size, the striking tools, and enough composure to make Cabral pay if the fight stays standing. I expect Da Lapa to find the finish once the pace opens up.

Pick: da Lapa to win by Round 2 KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt- Davi Cabral is coming off a sketchy split-decision win over 10-8 Perry Stargel, while Douglas da Lapa enters this matchup after a second-round finish at LFA 234. I understand the lack of talent at middleweight, but I’m really not a fan of this matchup at all. Neither Da Lapa nor Cabral truly deserves this opportunity, nor do I consider either a must-have prospect.

Da Lapa should have the edge here because of his size advantage and slightly better strength of schedule, though I’m not very confident either way.

Pick: Da Lapa by Decision

Xavi Ryder- Sadly, I was much higher on Cabral as a prospect before his most recent fight. He took on a 10-8 Perry Stargel and narrowly avoided defeat via split decision. Cabral is a well-rounded fighter who unfortunately doesn’t use his best skills as often as he should. He is a high-level BJJ grappler, but inside the MMA cage, Cabral uses grappling as a secondary tool. On the feet, Cabral is solid but basic. He has good leg kicks and decent hand power, but nothing exceptional.

Douglas da Lapa will certainly be looking to keep this fight on the feet, but I don’t know if Cabral will be able to take him down anyway. On the feet, da Lapa is the much more dangerous striker, and he has a big size advantage. I think Cabral struggles to close the distance on da Lapa, and da Lapa lands good shots at range to find a finish.

Pick: da Lapa by Round 2 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre- With his decorated grappling background, Cabral looked to be a fairly intriguing middleweight prospect up until he barely managed to get by a 10-8 fighter his last time out in July.

There’s no doubt that “Young Lion” is a danger to finish things any time the fight hits the mat, but unfortunately he isn’t especially adept at bringing his opponents down. He does have serviceable striking and a bit of power, but seeing him get rocked his last time out doesn’t inspire a tremendous amount of confidence in his ability to stand and trade with Da Lapa.

“Robozinho” could be in serious trouble if he does get taken down, but Da Lapa has the clearer path to victory on the feet given that wrestling is not Cabral’s strong suit.

Pick: Da Lapa by Round 2 KO/TKO

Cangrejo Ruiz – I’m really high on Da Lapa compared to others, as I am a big fan of his tools; he is a smart fighter with great range, and he knows how to use it. This range should dictate the fight, as Cabral is a small grappler who struggles to close the distance. I expect Da Lapa to be precise with his striking and find a finish.

Pick: Da Lapa by Round 2 KO/TKO

Benjamin Keith- As my co-workers have pointed out, stock couldn’t be lower on Cabral heading into this fight. He is an undersized wrestler that has produced a mixed bag of results. Due to the size difference, he will be a sitting duck on the feet. Da Lapa hasn’t done much to instill any confidence either, but is a solid striker and should be smart enough to keep this fight at range and pick Cabral apart.

Pick: Da Lapa by Round 2 KO/TKO