Contender Series 2026 Episode 10 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- You’d think the matchmakers would want to bring Francischinelli in to get him to the UFC. He’s the more hyped prospect, a dangerous striker, a highlight-reel finisher, and has the look. Instead, they match him with a wrestler in Rentz. Jonathan Piersma badly exposed Francischinelli’s takedown defense and ground game a year ago. Rentz isn’t on Piersma’s level but has a similar style. Rentz is coming off a KO win, but he’d be silly to strike here. Francischinelli leaves openings with his tall-man defense, but he’s too long and has too many weapons for Rentz to comfortably strike with.

Rentz is a good wrestler who gets inside and uses trips to get fights to the mat. His best weapon is his relentless ground and pound, throwing from just about every position until the ref steps in. His best chance is to wrestle early and aggressively, but getting inside on a big guy like Francischinelli won’t be easy. I expect Rentz to have some success, but I don’t trust his cardio and wrestling to keep him safe from Francischinelli’s offense. Eventually, Francischinelli finds the kill shot. I’m taking Francischinelli by KO in round one.

Cedric Dumas- There is not much about this matchup that inspires confidence.

Francischinelli is one of the more unusual welterweights on the regional scene. At 6’6″ with an 83-inch reach, the physical tools are obvious, and he is a fun striker to watch. The problem is that his defensive flaws are just as obvious. Jo Piersma recently exposed him at LFA, and he has won only once since earning this Contender Series opportunity. He leaves his chin available, does not offer much on the ground, and relies heavily on his striking advantages.

Rentz is the opposite kind of prospect. His record is polished, but the quality behind it is not particularly impressive. He lost the one time he stepped up against a genuinely credible opponent, getting knocked out by Chris Alvidrez in 2023, and has spent much of the time since beating regional opposition. He looks better on tape than the résumé suggests, but that is not exactly a high bar.

The physical gap should matter here. Francischinelli’s length and striking volume should allow him to find Rentz early, and I expect him to land something before Rentz can turn the fight into the kind of wrestling-heavy contest that could expose Francischinelli’s weaknesses.

This feels like a fight where the Contender Series format actually helps Francischinelli. He does not need to show a complete game. He needs to create enough chaos to land the big shot.

Pick: Francischinelli by Round 1 KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt- Luis Francischinelli has always felt like a prospect who’s just a few tools away. Almost as if the idea of Francischinelli is better than the reality of his skill set. Being 6-foot-6 at 170 pounds has its advantages, but it also comes with a fair share of disadvantages – especially defensively. Francischinelli’s long legs are inviting targets for wrestling-heavy opponents, and his chin remains in the air during striking exchanges. Those are two qualities that could potentially be exposed by his opposition, and Will Rentz could be the man to do it.

While not a perfect prospect, Rentz has strong grappling and enough athleticism to take Francischinelli down. He’ll have to be wary of knees when closing the distance to change levels, but if Rentz can get in on a takedown before Francischinelli gets comfortable on the feet, we could have an upset in store.

Pick: Rentz by Round 3 KO/TKO

Xavi Ryder- While the tools and size of Francischinelli are very exciting, this is absolutely a fight he can lose. Standing at 6’6” with an 83” reach, Francischinelli is by far the tallest and longest welterweight I’ve ever seen. As expected, he does his best work in the striking department and owns six knockout finishes in six wins. Rentz is going to need to close the distance here and look to ground his opponent. Rentz is a wrestler, and we saw Francischinelli fall to Jonathan Piersma’s ground game. I do think Piersma is the better fighter, but the wrestling path is there if Rentz can get it going early. With all this said, I do think this will end up being business as usual for Francischinelli as he catches Rentz trying to close the distance en route to an early finish.

Pick: Francischinelli by Round 1 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre- There’s little doubt that the UFC would probably prefer to bring Francischinelli in given his exciting style, so it’s a little strange that they’ve chosen to match him up with a wrestler after he lost to Jonathan Piersma last year.

Rentz’s wrestling isn’t quite on that same level, but he does have nasty ground and pound when he’s able to get things to the mat, and Francischinelli had few answers for Piersma’s ground game. The question is whether or not Rentz will be able to safely close the distance, as Francischinelli has a massive frame for the division and could catch him coming in if the Italian isn’t able to just keep him at range.

I normally tend to favor the grapplers in these sorts of fights, but Francischinelli’s size and weapons on the feet should allow him to make things very difficult for Rentz until the Italian finds a finishing shot.

Francischinelli by Round 1 KOTKO

Cangrejo Ruiz- These two are great against each other’s weaknesses, as Francischinelli is a gigantic striker with ground issues, and Rentz is a powerful wrestler who struggles against dynamic strikers. Game plans are quite clear, but I see Rentz struggling to close the distance, and Francischinelli is an instinctive finisher if he can control it.

Pick: Francischinelli by Round 1 KO/TKO

Benjamin Keith- Francischinelli is a beanstock of a welterweight. Against most opponents, I would favor him via size alone, but his lone loss is to a much smaller fighter. He has very iffy takedown defense, and I see him struggling mightily in the UFC unless they match him up favorably. Thankfully, while Rentz is a grappler, he is not a UFC-level one. I don’t think he presents enough on the feet to give Francischinelli anything to think about. Rentz will be fighting one-dimensionally, and Francischinelli will be good enough to keep the distance and pick him apart.

Pick: Francischinelli by Round 1 KO/TKO