Contender Series 2026 Episode 4 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- Bringing in Holmes is a mix of trying to force the shitty middleweight division on us and laziness. Holmes fought on the Contender Series last season and was finished in round one. He did have a highlight-reel knockout in his next fight against a 4-0 opponent, finishing with a slam and punches. I believe the way it should be is you have to earn your way back on after a bad loss. It shouldn’t just be one fight, and you’re back a year later. Rodrigues is riding a nice MMA win streak but no momentum. Last October, he fought three times in one night, getting knocked out in the K1 World GP finals. That was his last fight, so it’s untelling how he’ll rebound.

Both these guys are volatile fighters who are messy but gonna press the finish. Holmes wants to fight in the pocket, whereas Rodrigues wants to fight at range. Holmes has problems getting into range safely. He keeps his head on the center line, making him an easy target, and hooks over the shoulder and lands on him all day. His footwork is linear, moving straight forward without cutting off the cage, and he plants himself in the pocket for extended stretches. Rodrigues fights with about no defense but will make the most of his time on the feet. He has a heavy straight right, mixes in hard kicks, and his knees are dangerous. I’d imagine he will punish Holmes at range.

I see Holmes having success early, but as soon as he slows, I see Rodrigues nuking him with a flying knee or something. I’ve got Rodrigues by KO in round one because he hits harder, and the defense of Holmes is detrimental to him.

Pick: Rodrigues by Round 1 KO/TKO

Cedric Dumas– Full disclosure: I’m a Brandon Holmes guy. I picked him over Cam Rowston last year and stuck with him even after that loss, so I’ve been following his regional rebound closely.

Holmes is an explosive brawler who punches in bunches, generates legitimate power and is much stronger than his physique might suggest. That bulky 6’2″ frame carries serious force, and his cardio has held up well. The slam KO in his last outing was a perfect example of just how physical he can be.

Rodrigues actually surprised me when I watched his tape. The lanky “Slenderman” has some solid striking fundamentals and does a good job mixing in knees. His reach gives him some obvious advantages, while his recent K-1 kickboxing experience adds another layer to his game.

The problem is the durability. Rodrigues has already suffered two knockout losses, one in MMA and another in his most recent kickboxing bout, and he’s only 22.

Range will be the key here. Rowston beat Holmes by controlling distance extremely well, and Rodrigues will need to follow a similar blueprint. I just don’t trust him to keep Holmes at the end of his punches for long enough.

I expect Holmes’ explosiveness to eventually close the distance and overwhelm him.

Pick: Holmes by Round 1 KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt- A returner from last season, Brandon Holmes will make his second walk on DWCS following an entertaining knockout over undefeated prospect Preston LeGrange. His last opportunity ended pretty quickly, with Cam Rowston handing him a gorgeous first-round knockout, but for Holmes’ sake, we’re going to give him the benefit of the doubt that night since he came in on short notice.

On tape, it quickly becomes apparent that the American loves to get out early. When things are going well for Holmes, he’s finding his range behind a stiff jab. Though things can get out of control quickly in a Brandon Holmes fight. If he smells blood in the water, he’s going all out for the finish. It can be viewed as both a positive and a negative. Everyone wants to see the finishes, and Holmes certainly has the one-punch power to deliver them, but leaving technique and responsible defense at the door will only serve him poorly if he makes it to the UFC.

The other fighter in this matchup is Modestino Rodrigues. He’s a fun fighter, and I understand why the UFC is interested. Rodrigues has all the crazy clips and exciting finishes you could ask for. A lot of his biggest moments on the feet come when the Brazilian is rushing toward his opponents with flying knees and bursts of pure madness. Similar to what I said about Holmes, Rodrigues is equally, if not even crazier, inside the octagon. He has no regard for defense, and when he fights, it doesn’t even look like that’s a thought that would ever cross his mind. Simply put, he’s all gas, no brakes. Personally, I believe some of that confidence comes from his lack of competition, as he’s largely been able to take fights where he doesn’t have to worry about being hit.

At the end of the day, all that matters to the UFC is that Rodrigues makes for a good dance partner with anyone, especially Brandon Holmes. This is a very low-confidence pick for me, but we’re going to get a highlight with this matchup. If everything goes to plan, someone’s getting knocked out within the first two rounds, though I won’t be putting much stock in either side long-term. I think Rodrigues’ athleticism and spontaneous style are intriguing, but ultimately, I’ve settled on Brandon Holmes because of the validity of his résumé and slightly better defense.

Pick: Holmes by Round 1 KO/TKO

Xavi Ryder- The trend of returning fighters continues this week with Brandon Holmes taking on Modestino Rodrigues. Cam Rowston smoked Holmes inside three minutes last season, but off the back of a round one slam TKO, Holmes gets a second chance.

Holmes will need to get inside here, or we could be looking at a replay of last year. Rowston did damage by keeping Holmes at the end of his range and mixing up his weapons. Rodrigues has all the tools to make this happen. He is a long, wild kickboxer with K1 GP experience. In his MMA fights, Rodrigues has powerful straight punches and can be really explosive with knees and kicks. While all his weapons are dangerous, he throws his defensive responsibilities out the window. Rodrigues has been knocked out twice, including in his most recent fight, a kickboxing bout last year.

Holmes has the willingness to brawl and power to take advantage of those holes, but I’m not sure it goes that way. Holmes is a bit too slow and stiff in my opinion, and I see him getting caught with something big at the end of Rodrigues’ range.

Pick: Rodrigues by Round 1 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre – Even after scoring a big finish over a formerly-undefeated opponent, I don’t know that Holmes deserves an immediate call back to DWCS given that he lasted less than three minutes against Cam Rowston last year. That being said, he could absolutely find a knockout here if he’s able to close the distance on Rodrigues and make this more of a brawl.

Rodrigues will prefer to keep this at range if possible, and I’ll be interested to see how much of his recent kickboxing experience he can display in the cage after not competing in MMA for more than a year. I won’t be at all surprised if Holmes is able to get in close and find his chin, but the fact that Rodrigues has more tools at his disposal on the feet is enough to make me slightly lean with him in this matchup.

Pick: Rodrigues by Round 1 KO/TKO

Cangrejo Ruiz- This one should be interesting; matchmakers clearly like Holmes, as he is the kind of guy they are building the middleweight division around: a brawler with a limited toolset, and tbf he is quite good at it. On the other side is Rodrigues, a rangy kickboxer with subpar durability. Holmes had trouble closing the distance against a similar striker in Rowston, but I don’t expect Rodrigues to be able to deal as well as Rowston against Holmes’ heavy pressure.

Pick: Holmes by Round 1 KO/TKO

Benjamin Keith-  While it will be a recurring topic that I don’t like losing fighters getting another shot so quickly (Brandon Holmes), I actually like this matchmaking and think the winner will make a fun addition to the UFC middleweight division if nothing else. 

Modestino Rodrigues is a lanky kickboxer that shows no regard for the shots coming back his direction. While he doesn’t have a good MMA win to his name, he is a legitimate talent on the feet. From the Brenson Ribeiro school of “swing all your limbs like they’re baseball bats”, Rodrigues can do damage with anything from anywhere, and because of that he will undoubtedly knock out some more well-rounded and technically sound fighters that he probably shouldn’t in his career. He is the type of fighter who would present a ton of danger to a top-10 UFC fighter, but also find himself capable of losing to the very worst on the roster. No ceiling, no floor.

Brandon Holmes, while more measured than his opponent, is also a very offensive-minded fighter. He has no head movement, and doesn’t get his hands up super quickly, but will still try to walk his opponents down and land with some stiff power. He doesn’t have great range for the division, so he chooses to fight in the pocket and does it well, but he is susceptible to taking a lot of damage while getting there. He has what it takes to trade with Rodrigues, but he would be wise to use his raw strength and initiate some grappling. He has shown solid top pressure in the past, but that is not really his game.

I expect this fight to be short, and while I don’t have full confidence in the pick, I think the explosive kid is capable of an upset here.

Pick: Rodrigues by Round 1 KO/TKO