Contender Series 2026 Episode 4 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- I expected to go into tape siding with Lorenço. I came out with a better impression of Cleveland and wondering why Lorenço is even here. The UFC has been signing a bunch of heavyweight bums straight to the UFC lately, but one that would’ve made sense is Cleveland.

Cleveland is coming off two impressive knockouts against decent regional comp. I will say that before that, it will leave a bad taste in your mouth. He shouldn’t be going to a decision against 9-25 Cameron Graves or losing to RJ Harris. The thing is, Cameron Graves would likely beat Lorenço.

Lorenço is an athletic guy, but he’s just another big Brazilian the UFC is obsessed with. It’s these big guys who look apart but fight like they never trained a day in their life. Cleveland at least has skills and will process things. He has good power too, but he throws combos and mixes it up. I’m comfortable gonna be picking Cleveland by TKO in round one.

Pick: Cleveland by Round 1 KO/TKO

Cedric Dumas- This is one of the lowest-level heavyweight matchups you’re likely to see on DWCS. Cleveland looks solid on paper, but the tape tells a somewhat different story. He’s reasonably quick, has decent cardio for the division, and doesn’t carry much unnecessary weight. His striking is basic but powerful, especially his left hand, and he throws combinations well.

His biggest issue is his wrestling defense. It’s shaky at times, although he does scramble well and has a knack for getting back to his feet. Going three full rounds with Cameron Graham without finding a finish wasn’t exactly encouraging.

Lorenço is even more raw. Limited tape is available, and much of what exists is against low-level opposition he has occasionally struggled to put away. A former middleweight who has bulked up significantly, he’s muscular and carries some power, but his punching technique is fairly crude, and he rarely puts combinations together. His takedown defense is also questionable.

His best weapon is probably his nasty low-kick and calf-kick game. He should have a speed advantage, but he’s never faced anyone with Cleveland’s power, and he was knocked out in his professional debut at middleweight.

I expect Cleveland’s overhand left to eventually find its home.

Pick: Cleveland by Round 1 KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt- Heavyweight is probably the easiest weight class to scout, but there are so few skilled bodies that I’m sure it’s difficult not to settle on a fight like this. I guess you’ll get what you want in the sense of a highlight finish, but this feels extremely short-sighted by the UFC. If the prospects aren’t out there, don’t make the fight; simple as that. Don’t force mediocre bodies into a weight class because of need. Sign the best prospects and raise the bar. I’d rather have a logjam at bantamweight and lightweight with elite talent sitting outside the rankings than have more heavyweight slop just to meet a quota.

Anyway, my spiel is over, and I’m going to keep my analysis short and sweet. Gabriel Lorenço really didn’t look like he knew what he was doing inside the cage. He’s a big guy, a former middleweight who’s climbed up to heavyweight throughout his career, but he’s just so raw that DWCS isn’t going to serve him well at this point in his career.

Charlie Cleveland, his opponent, isn’t necessarily a world-beater either. His takedown defense is alarming, and going to a decision with Brandon Graham, who held a 9-21 record at the time of the fight, is pretty embarrassing. He was also put in an Americana by RJ Harris, so however you feel about Harris, that can perhaps be used as an indictment. One thing Cleveland does have, though, is power; this is mostly a flip of a coin because Lorenço can swing too, but I’ve ultimately decided to side with Charlie Cleveland in this one.

Pick: Cleveland by Round 1 KO/TKO

Xavi Ryder- If the tapology order is correct, we are opening up the week four card with an ugly heavyweight fight. I’m not the biggest fan of Charlie Cleveland, but I’m absolutely not a fan of middleweights now fighting at heavyweight. In the first fight of his professional MMA career, Lourenço was finished in the first round by fellow Contender Series fighter Igor Cavalcanti at middleweight. Since then, he hasn’t been finished, but his competition has been really low level.

Not that he is a top heavyweight in my opinion, but at least Cleveland has recently been fighting in LFA. Cleveland’s last win is the best of his career, scoring a round one knockout over former TUF fighter Nyle Bartling. With Cleveland having the speed advantage and Lourenço now stepping into the toughest fight he will have had at heavyweight, I am siding with Cleveland to find an early knockout.

Pick: Cleveland by Round 1 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre– The UFC seemingly always has room for more heavyweights on the roster, and unfortunately neither of these men figure to make any real impact on the division if they do get signed.

Cleveland, at the very least, is coming off a decent win his last time out after facing largely underwhelming competition prior to that, although that’s also the case for the fighters Lourenco has been running through on the Brazilian regional scene. I’m tempted to pick Lourenco to chop away with low kicks in order to slow Cleveland down, use a likely speed advantage, and find a finish, but it feels more like that “The Reaper” will find the Brazilian’s chin at some point during a striking exchange.

Pick: Cleveland by Round 1 KO/TKO

Cangrejo Ruiz- I might be in an island here, but I see this as a competitive fight which I don’t mind having on DWCS. Cleveland has decent striking and good power, but other factors limit his game. Lourenço has faced a much lower level of competition, but he shows a lot more potential. He moves quite well for a heavyweight and has the athleticism this division most of the time needs. This feels like a floor-vs-ceiling matchup, and I feel like Lourenço has the upside to cause an upset.

Pick: Lorenço by Round 1 KO/TKO

Benjamin Keith-  Charlie Cleveland is a powerful light heavyweight that carries a little too much weight in the hips and is thus fighting at heavyweight. It is probably for the best though, as you can run into fairly rudimentary matchups like Lourenco when fighting at heavyweight. Cleveland is 10-1 combined in his pro and amateur career, with his one loss coming to RJ Harris. A loss that I think will continue to age decently. “The Reaper” doesn’t do anything that will make you jump out of your chair but carries solid athleticism for the division. He seems to be finding his power, coming off 2 straight knockouts that he made look easy, and I’d actually be decently excited about him if he trained with a good team. I think he has the potential to be good, but still is quite raw, and I would love to see him add some layers to his game. 

Luckily for Cleveland, he likely won’t need a complex gameplan if he is going to beat Lourenco. Lourenco, who should also be fighting at light heavyweight, looks good getting off the bus. That combined with him training at Chute Boxe is likely why he got the call here. Otherwise, it’s really hard to know what to make of the big man that grew up in Encantado, Brazil (Now home to Brazil’s largest Jesus statue, Christ the Protector). There’s very limited film on him, and I hope that the UFC has access to sparring footage that we don’t have that made them confident in booking him here. He is athletic, has solid pop and snap on his punches and kicks, but looks raw and clunky in the cage. 

I would be excited to watch this fight on the regional scene; I’d label the winner someone to watch going forward. But it’s happening on the Contender Series, and the winner will likely face UFC competition going forward; unless they grow fantastically on the job, I see them racking up losses that might get them cut before they get good enough to be a real danger in the UFC. I really don’t know who will win here, but let’s take an educated guess on the guy with better wins to this point.

Pick: Cleveland by Round 2 KO/TKO