Contender Series 2026 Episode 4 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- Rivera gets this opportunity after finding a Contender Series contract at the bottom of a cereal box. I can’t understand how they even found this guy, or how they brought him on. He’s 34 and fighting for a terrible promotion in Shogun Fights, who don’t have the money to invest in a camera, apparently. He’s coming off a win against journeyman Rey Trujillo (28-42), taking Rivera until round three to find a finish. Last year he took an 8-10 Jimmy Sandlin to a decision.

I can’t tell you what he’s good at, but I can tell you what he’s good at against Darby. Darby is a long welterweight that knows how to use every bit of his length. I’d imagine fighting Darby is both aggravating and painful. At range, he’s good at jabbing your face off and front-kicking the lead leg and gut. Very often, Darby finds himself defending takedowns, but it’s been no issue for him. He does a great job of breaking grip and landing nasty elbows and knees. Also, while defending takedowns, he has a nasty front choke and submission attack off his back in general.

Darby doesn’t have hardly any power but persistent pressure and an array of weapons that will eventually break an opponent. Darby is gonna put pace on this man.

Pick: Darby by Round 1 Submission

Cedric Dumas–  I’m not a big fan of Adam Darby. He’s 7-1, can strike, wrestle, and submit you, but he’s pretty average across the board. Nothing he does really stands out as particularly sharp or dangerous.

He was a good amateur, highlighted by a win over Patrick Habirora, but I never felt he developed at the rate I expected once he turned professional.

Tape on Patrick Rivera is difficult to find, which already makes him hard to evaluate. I’m also generally hesitant to put much stock into fighters coming out of Shogun Fights, especially when the level of opposition has been inconsistent.

At 34, Rivera’s most recent win came against Rey Trujillo, who is about as regional as it gets, and somehow that was enough to earn him this opportunity.

From the limited footage I’ve been able to find, Rivera appears to be primarily a kickboxing-oriented fighter, and that’s about where my assessment ends. I don’t rate him highly at all, and I don’t think this is a particularly deserving matchup for the DWCS stage.

Honestly, this fight doesn’t do much for either man.

Darby should be able to use his size and versatility to eventually get the fight to the ground and find the finish.

Pick: Darby by Round 2 Submission

Nicholas Holt- Maybe it’s my love for fighters with an IMMAF background, but Adam Darby is one I’m pretty excited to see perform inside the octagon. The Irish native scored victories over Patrick Habirora and Leon Hill on the amateur scene and has continued to perform during his time with Cage Warriors.

Standing 6’3″, Darby uses his frame well in the cage, constantly pumping his jab to poke at his opponents from range. His accuracy is most impressive, and while he doesn’t possess big power, his high volume breaks down his opposition. He has a bit of a Muay Thai style that oozes patience and polish, but perhaps the most dangerous strike in his repertoire comes when Darby closes the range with crushing knees to the head and body. He does a lot of work inside the clinch, and while he may seem like a fighter opponents could neutralize on the ground, that couldn’t be further from the truth.

The Dublin native has excellent submission grappling, consistently working from his back to find triangle chokes that present themselves. It’s somewhat of a risk-management situation for anyone who matches up with Darby: strike at a disadvantage from range or dive into his dangerous guard. He’s approaching the status of a complete fighter, though Darby’s biggest weakness is how much he trusts his chin. The Irishman has eaten a lot of good shots to the head throughout his career, and while he likely won’t need to worry about being hit much in this fight, it’s something to note later in his career. There are some extremely hard-hitting 170ers in the UFC, and Darby won’t be able to take the shots he’s absorbed in the past.

On the other side of the cage, it’s quite difficult for me to give much of an evaluation on Patrick Rivera. I struggled to find tape of him from the past four years, and it feels kind of ignorant to form an opinion based on how he looked in 2022. You’d have to assume the UFC was able to get their hands on his recent film (I hope), but a quick look at the level of competition he’s been fighting tells me he likely won’t be ready for this opportunity.

Now, if we are to go back early in his career, it’s easy to conclude Rivera is definitely a striker first. A few of the fights I found were boxing and Muay Thai matches, and while it’s not the same game he’ll be playing on DWCS, Rivera was competent in those fights, using his hands both in the pocket and at range. I could only find one MMA fight on UFC Fight Pass: his bout against Dakota Bush at LFA 49. Of course, eight years have passed since then, but Rivera looked solid in that fight before being submitted in the third round. Maybe he’s improved into an elite prospect since then. Odds are he hasn’t, especially considering he’s been can-crushing a bunch of fighters with losing records in Shogun Fights, but hey, I guess you never know.

I can’t really spin this any other way. I’m taking Darby because I know what I’m getting, and I trust his background. Darby isn’t a massive offensive grappler, but assuming it’s the easiest path against Rivera, he’s a smart enough fighter to find his way into a dominant position and finish the bout within the first five minutes.

Pick: Darby by Round 1 Submission

Xavi Ryder- This is such a weird matchup because they absolutely could’ve found a better welterweight than 34-year-old Patrick Rivera. Maybe they really like Darby, and this is a setup fight, but who knows.

Darby is another extremely well-rounded fighter, and he is very tall for the weight class. At 6’3”, Darby is so good at using his range. A versatile striker, he also uses all of the weapons at his disposal. His kicks stick out to me, as he has a variety of kicks he uses at all three levels. Not only is the dude’s range frustrating to deal with, but his pressure and volume just add to the problems. On the ground, he wrestles well and has the submissions to back it up. At the pro level, all three of his submissions have been different.

Patrick Rivera just isn’t UFC level, and I fully expect Darby to finish him within the first two rounds however he wants to. He can break Rivera down on the feet or submit him.

Pick: Darby by Round 1 Submission

Drew Beaupre– Every time I see a fighter of Rivera’s age scheduled to compete on DWCS, I think of how Dana White (presumably) has some say in booking these fights but also claims he doesn’t want to sign 30-something-year-old prospects. I don’t expect that White will be presented with that dilemma here, as Rivera will likely need to catch Darby clean in order to pull off an upset.

There’s always the chance that Rivera could come in and surprise everyone given that there’s not a ton of tape available on him, but I’m expecting Darby to put a pace on him and make full use of his length on the feet. Those long limbs also help make him a serious submission threat, which is how I think “The Plank” will ultimately finish this fight in order to secure a UFC contract.

Pick: Darby by Round 1 Submission

Cangrejo Ruiz- I try to stay neutral in these breakdowns, but this is the most egregious matchmaking I can remember in DWCS. We have seen untalented guys many times, but at least there was some sort of justification for their signing. All respect to Rivera, who has the opportunity to shut many mouths, but he shouldn’t be here. He is old, his record isn’t good, and he doesn’t even cater to any audience. If you liked Darby so much that you want to give him an easy win like Hassan and Wint had in week one, there are likely no exaggeration a thousand better candidates. Anyways, rant over. Darby is a fine, lanky guy with really sharp combinations, but he doesn’t wear damage well at all, so I expect him to move up to Middleweight soon.

Pick: Darby by Round 1 KO/TKO

Benjamin Keith- I don’t love being in the business of trashing fighters. So I won’t be. Instead, I will continue to trash the UFC scouting here. Patrick Rivera, a 34-year-old with a 13-4 record, is receiving a fight to get into the UFC, and that is not his fault. But this fight shouldn’t exist; instead, just give Adam Darby a contract. He is clearly the fighter that the UFC wants to win here, so just outright sign him instead of making him “earn” it by fighting someone of such a low caliber. Adam Darby will not knock your socks off, but he is worthy of a UFC opportunity. He’s got good size and uses it well. He has a good gas tank, applies constant pressure, and can drown lesser opponents like this “Patrick Rivera”, who I am still not absolutely convinced is a real person. I can’t wait to see how the UFC broadcast team pumps up this fight, and I hope it opens more casual fans’ eyes to how lazy the scouting department has gotten with this season. Jiminy Christmas. 

Pick: Adam Darby by Round 1 Submission.