Contender Series 2026 Episode 4 Breakdown and Predictions

Shawn Bitter- Livingston is another one getting a second chance on the Contender Series after losing last season. As he did lose to one of the better guys in Tommy Gantt, he got dominated to a round one finish. He did get back on the board with a win in an exciting fight and highlight-reel spinning elbow knockout. As I understand it, they brought him back because he was too raw going into his first CS fight, and nothing has changed.

Smith is a solid regional guy with good skills. He’s gotten better recently but is still a bit far behind. You could argue he should be 6-3. In his fights with Juan Chavana and Nico Echeverry, you could argue he lost. He fights on thin margins as he keeps fights too close until he finds a finish. He has some nice tools like the jab, clean combos, and angling off. He hardly mixes up his strikes, while his best work comes off counters. If you blitz in on him, he will slip well and land that check hook. If you pick him apart at range, you’ll be able to dictate the pace, and he doesn’t wear damage as well.

The fight will seem close to many, but to me, I think Livingston breaks Smith. Livingston is gonna keep a hard pace and constantly put something out there. Livingston has more tools, mixes it up better, and is gonna use his range to find better opportunities.

Pick: Livingston by Round 2 KO/TKO

Cedric Dumas-  I’m not a fan of this booking. There are clearly better lightweights available around the world, but I understand the direction the UFC is taking here. Both men are finishers, and that’s clearly part of the appeal.

Livingston lost to Tommy Gantt last year, but there’s absolutely no shame in that result considering what Gantt has gone on to accomplish in the UFC.

Livingston himself is a dangerous finisher. He’s a forward-pressure striker who can generate serious power and produce highlight-reel finishes, although I don’t think his grappling is on the same level as his striking.

Smith didn’t leave much of an impression on me during my tape study. He’s a sharp counter-striker with legitimate power in his hands, but he’s undersized for the division, especially compared with Livingston’s 6’2″ frame.

That size difference could become a major factor. Livingston is likely to spend the fight moving forward, forcing Smith to work off his back foot and constantly look for the perfect counter.

Smith absolutely has a path to victory, but he’ll need to be extremely disciplined and find the right shot at exactly the right moment.

I expect Livingston to stay in his face, overwhelm him with pressure, and eventually break him down.

Pick: Livingston by Round 2 KO/TKO

Nicholas Holt- This is another pretty fun fight, but I’m not thrilled about having Adam Livingston back on the show. Don’t get me wrong, he’s only 24 years old, and his fight with Kyle Pufhal was a fantastic watch, but I’m getting really tired of rerunning the same fighters. I gave Brandon Holmes some grace for being on short notice and taking on Cam Rowston, so it would be wrong for me not to give Livingston an even longer leash considering he fell to Tommy Gantt, who I’m much higher on than Rowston.

Livingston is another out-of-control highlight maker, which seems to be somewhat of a theme this season. His size makes up for a lot of his technical disparities. Standing 6’2″ and not skinny by any means, Adam Livingston tends to have a physical advantage inside the cage. He relies heavily on his power, but honestly, I’m not so sure he’s as big of a power puncher as everyone says. Too many times I’ve seen Livingston land clean shots that should put his opponent’s lights out, yet he hasn’t scored a finish that cleanly since leaving his New York regional promotion, Flex Fight Series. While he might not have the “death touch” everyone is looking for, Adam Livingston is still no easy task on the feet. He’s a bully who won’t quit easily, and he’s going to be on the gas early, constantly pushing forward. It’s important that he doesn’t get frustrated if the finish doesn’t come right away, because if Livingston dumbs down his game plan and simply plays the role of the bigger fighter, that could spell trouble against Hunter Smith, who comes in five inches shorter.

Smith is the new face in this matchup, as the Louisiana regional product finds himself right where he wants to be, earning his opportunity after scoring back-to-back knockouts in just over 100 days. Similar to Livingston, Hunter Smith has been tested in deeper waters before, with his tools mostly failing him against his best competition. He earned a shaky decision win at Fury FC 106 before quickly returning to Louisiana’s American Kombat Alliance… not a great sign, but if I’m being honest, I actually came away impressed with Hunter Smith’s offensive repertoire. His striking is fluid, and I believe his boxing style counters Livingston’s recklessness extremely well. His quick feet won’t be easy for Livingston to cut off, and even if he has to avoid an early flurry of strikes, his gas tank can be trusted, too. In the fights he’s made it past the second round, his movement has remained slick and fluid. As an amateur, he also gained some five-round experience, winning a title fight via fifth-round knockout before turning professional in 2023.

I also have some confidence in Hunter Smith’s preparation for this fight. Training out of Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas, I’m expecting the game plan for Adam Livingston to be nuanced and in-depth. Smith will be surrounded by fighters and coaches who’ve been there before- John Wood’s team has completed this assignment in the past. Can Hunter Smith be next?

This is going to be another low-confidence pick for me, but I’ve actually developed a little bit of excitement to see Hunter Smith fight. Long-term, I’m not really sure how high Smith’s ceiling could end up being, but I do know that we’ve already seen Livingston get chewed up against the next level of competition. I’m rooting in favor of potential in this one, and I find some comfort in backing the Syndicate-trained fighter. Smith has been rubbing the right shoulders, and I believe we’ll see the best version of him come Tuesday night.

Pick: Smith by Round 3 KO/TKO

Xavi Ryder- Yet another returning fighter here in Adam Livingston. Livingston had a very tough outing last year against Tommy Gantt, where he was submitted in the first. After scoring a nice spinning elbow KO early this year, he has earned himself another opportunity on the Contender Series against Hunter Smith.

Livingston has a huge size advantage with a 5-inch height gap between the two fighters. I think this will play a big factor in how this goes down. Both of these guys will come into the fight thinking their opponent’s style plays into their own well. Livingston likes to use his size, get in your face early, keep the pressure on, and land big shots. Smith is a solid counter-striker with some power in his hands. Smith will need to stay consistent with his footwork so he doesn’t get stuck on the fence. If he can do this while landing big counters, the fight is there to be won. However, I think Livingston will be able to keep the pressure on Smith and wear him down for a TKO victory.

Pick: Livingston by Round 2 KO/TKO

Drew Beaupre– It’s one thing when DWCS features matchups between lower-level fighters in weight classes that are a bit thin on promising prospects, but comparing this bout to McCracken vs. Sanchez just shows there are much better lightweights available to audition for UFC contracts.

The big question in this fight will be how Smith is able to deal with Livingston’s size, as “Headshot” is a hard hitter but will need to close the distance in order to find his opponent’s chin. That’s easier said than done, and I’m expecting Livingston to eventually find a finishing shot in what should be a high-paced fight for as long as it lasts.

Pick: Livingston by Round 2 KO/TKO

Cangrejo Ruiz- Kind of a low-level fight for the division, but they will likely get a decent American midcarder from it. Livingston seems like the more polished fighter here; his striking is really fluid, and he can put together really nice combinations. Smith is also a striker but with a more limited toolset; he has good power for the division and sharp counters, but that’s about it. Both guys’ wrestling game is lacking, but I would trust Livingston to be the better guy there despite being controlled by Gantt last year. In this fight, I trust the better striker.

Pick- Livingston by Round 3 KO/TKO

Benjamin Keith- Out of Lake Charles, Louisiana, Hunter Smith has developed into one of the more fun-to-watch fighters from the American South over the past couple of years. He is a meat-and-potatoes fighter, with great strength that lends itself to good grappling defense. His combinations are basic on the feet, but his hooks are heavy, and he is a sharp counter-striker when he needs to be. His best attribute is clearly his power, and he believes in it, willing to get into wild exchanges that he usually gets the better of. The UFC is clearly enamored with his finishing upside, and while I don’t think he has a particularly huge upside, I do like the fact that he likely won’t be seeing many scorecards going forward.

Taking on Smith is a man who is similarly allergic to scorecards in Adam Livingston. Livingston is returning after getting dogwalked just last season by a man I rate highly in Tommy Gantt. While I wouldn’t have minded Livingston getting another crack a year or two down the line, it does make the fights feel pointless when you can return 12 months after getting finished in the first round in front of the boss. 

That said, I like Livingston; he has a similar finishing upside to Smith but throws a more varied array of strikes and pushes the pace more throughout the fight. While last season’s fight displayed some holes in Livingston’s grappling defense, I don’t expect either fighter to deploy any grappling here. Livingston will push the pace, and both fighters tend to leave their chins up, which makes me think this will be a shorter fight. Livingston will have a big size and reach advantage here, but sometimes he has shown in the past that he doesn’t have the patience to fight with distance as he should. 

I think Livingston is probably the better fighter here, but I actually like the matchup stylistically more for Hunter Smith. If he manages to stay composed enough, his power counters could be the perfect antidote for Livingston’s frantic pressure. If he can survive the early onslaught, I’m betting he will eventually catch him with a stiff check hook. 

Pick: Smith by Round 2 KO/TKO